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| 1 |
ID:
192828
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| Summary/Abstract |
Hydrogen is receiving increasing attention to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors, such as carbon intensive industries and long-distance transport, with the ultimate goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net-zero. However, limited knowledge exists so far on the socio-economic and environmental impacts for countries moving towards green hydrogen. Here, we analyse the macroeconomic impacts, both direct and indirect, in terms of GDP growth, employment generation and GHG emissions, of green hydrogen production in Switzerland. The results are first presented in gross terms for the construction and operation of a new green hydrogen industry considering that all the produced hydrogen is allocated to passenger cars (final demand). We find that, for each kg of green hydrogen produced, the operational phase creates 6.0, 5.9 and 9.5 times more GDP, employment and GHG emissions respectively compared to the construction phase (all values in gross terms). Additionally, the net impacts are calculated by assuming replacement of diesel by green hydrogen as fuel for passenger cars. We find that green hydrogen contributes to a higher GDP and employment compared to diesel, while reducing GHG emissions. For instance, in all the three cases, namely, ‘Equal Cost’, ‘Equal Energy’ and ‘Equal Service’, we find that a green hydrogen industry generates around 106%, 28% and 45% higher GDP, respectively; 163%, 43% and 65% more full-time equivalent jobs, respectively; and finally 45%, 18% and 29% lower GHG emissions, respectively, compared to diesel and other industries. Finally, the methodology developed in this study can be extended to other countries using country-specific data.
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| 2 |
ID:
177149
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| Summary/Abstract |
Reunion Island, similar to most insular regions, is ruled by a carbon-based economy that is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. In recent years, the energy transition towards a low-carbon economy has become the watchword of this French overseas region, with the objective of a 100% renewable energy mix by 2030. Reducing fossil fuel use while maintaining economic growth is an important issue for all countries but is even more important for island territories with structural and geographical handicaps. Energy transition and drastic greenhouse gas emission reductions represent costs and opportunities that need to be quantified. This research paper assesses the environmental and macroeconomic effects of the carbon price policy introduced in France to meet the target of the Paris Agreement. The acceptability of the tax significantly depends on the possibility of recycling tax revenues. Different schemes for recycling tax revenues are considered in simulations. The methodology used is a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Reunion Island (GetRun-NRJ) that takes into account all island specificities. The results show that the carbon tax enables substitutions between fossil and renewable energy production and reduces CO2 emissions. However, the tax has negative effects on the aggregate economy. The implemented tax revenue recycling compensation mechanisms mitigate the negative impacts, but the results differ significantly, as the recycling schemes do not support the same economic actors.
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| 3 |
ID:
180166
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| Summary/Abstract |
Many countries have undertaken market-oriented reforms of the power sector over the past four decades. However, the literature has not investigated whether the reforms have contributed to economic growth. This study assesses the potential macroeconomic impacts of following the market-based principle in operating and expanding the power system, an important ingredient of the power sector reform launched in China in 2015. The study uses a hybrid modeling approach by coupling a top-down computable general equilibrium model with a bottom-up energy sector TIMES model. The study finds that electricity prices in China would be 20 percent lower than the country is likely to experience in 2020 if the country follows the market principle to expand and operate the power system. The price reduction would spill over throughout the economy, resulting in an increase in the gross domestic product of more than one percent (or more than a billion US dollars) in 2020. It would also have positive impacts on most economic indicators, including household income and international trade. The findings quantitatively highlight the importance of implementing the 2015 power sector reforms in China and further expanding the initiatives in the future.
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| 4 |
ID:
150745
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| Summary/Abstract |
Renewable energy sources (RES) play a key role in the European Commission's 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, which aims for a low-carbon economy that increases the security of the EU's energy supplies and creates new opportunities for growth and jobs, among other benefits. We assess whether renewable energy deployment in Europe can provide this “triple dividend”, at which ambition levels of 2030 RES targets and what the role of the support policy scheme for electricity is. We apply two types of models: a detailed techno-economic sector model of the deployment of RES and two macroeconomic models. Our findings suggest that up to 2030 our triple-dividend hypothesis holds even under a declining role of Europe as technology provider for the rest of the world. Additional emission reductions of up to 1040 Mt CO2, as compared to a baseline scenario in 2030, are possible. Demand for fossil fuels can likewise be reduced due to the deployment of renewable energy sources by up to 150 Mtoe. More ambiguous is the order of magnitude of the effects on GDP and employment, which differs noticeably depending on the economic theory applied in the different models. Nevertheless, both models predict slightly higher GDP and employment in 2030 when implementing ambitious RES targets.
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| 5 |
ID:
176709
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| Summary/Abstract |
Following the Paris Agreement, climate policies have been developing rapidly, consequently affecting all economic agents. To this extent, trade implications and competitiveness effects have been of prime concern to energy and climate policy makers. In this study, we employ the GEM-E3 hybrid CGE model to quantify the regional and sectoral trade impacts of climate mitigation scenarios. In line with the Paris Agreement, we assess a global implementation of NDCs and a global mitigation action consistent with the 2°C target. The scenarios differ in both effort sharing and mitigation stringency, yet we find a reduction of global trade activity under both policy regimes. The key driver is the sharp decline of global demand for fossil fuels. Fossil fuels, a highly traded good, are substituted by domestically produced goods like electricity or by capital equipment that is traded with lower intensity. Decarbonization policies have an important impact on trade flows, affected by the relative stringency of action and the key characteristics of the regional economies. We identify regions that benefit from the emergence of new markets for clean energy goods, contrary to the fossil-fuel exporters, as well as regions that achieve a comparative advantage due to their preparedness from early mitigation action.
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