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| 1 |
ID:
150769
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| Summary/Abstract |
The replacement of outdated and inefficient fossil fuel residential heating systems (RHS) by more efficient and less CO2-intensive appliances primarily based on renewable energy sources is an important pillar for the transition to a cleaner and more sustainable energy system. This paper empirically investigates drivers and barriers behind homeowners' decisions to switch from a fossil fuel to a renewable RHS in Germany. For this purpose, we draw on data from a 2010 questionnaire survey among owners of existing single-family and duplex houses in Germany that had received a financial grant to install an RHS (i.e. condensing boiler with solar thermal support, heat pump or wood pellet boiler). We show that environmental protection, a lower dependency on fossil fuels, and a higher degree of RHS-related knowledge are key drivers. In contrast, the perceived difficulty of getting used to the system and a misunderstanding of its principal functioning are obstacles for the heat pump. For the wood pellet boiler, perceived barriers include the low usability, the labor-intensive operation, and the systems' fault liability. Hence, a higher replacement rate requires the willingness to relinquish old habits and perceptions of how an RHS works and operates.
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| 2 |
ID:
171489
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| Summary/Abstract |
Natural gas vehicles (NGV) face significant adoption barriers in Jakarta. Therefore, a successful transition requires measures from the government. Owing to the high cost of transition policies, the efficacy of these policies must be analyzed to identify the most effective policy. The implementation of transition policies, however, could dynamically influence people's perception and behavior, which then changes the landscape of adoption barriers. Furthermore, even a seemingly successful policy may fail when a certain pathway of uncertainties emerges in the future. To address these concerns, we integrated agent-based modeling, exploratory modeling, and diffusion of innovation theory into the exploratory model-based diffusion analysis approach. This approach evaluates the policy's performance, explores changes in the relative importance of different adoption barriers, and identifies policy vulnerabilities, i.e., scenarios leading to policy failures. We tested this approach on four NGV transition policies targeting three adoption barriers. We found that the importance of adoption barriers and the critical uncertainties upon the implemented policies. The social–behavioral barrier predominates under current conditions, whereas the economic factor becomes more relevant when all policies are executed. Understanding the changes in adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities will help decision-makers to prepare additional measures that ensure a successful transition.
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| 3 |
ID:
177129
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| Summary/Abstract |
The tools available to translate climate targets into abatement actions are mainly based on costs and technical feasibility. Options for greenhouse gas abatement span all sectors, all countries, and involve a huge variety of technologies. The reasons for abatement to be realized, or not, are diverse and complex. In particular, the political discussion why many affordable options do not materialize is naïve and ad hoc. Here we show the Y factor, an approach for a quick scan of abatement options against a set of prominent abatement barriers. We define 12 factors which capture a broad set of barriers related to 1) costs and financing, 2) multi-actor complexity, 3) physical interdependencies and 4) behaviour. We rank 24 abatement options using an explicit, but coarse scoring for these barriers. We show that all abatement options have implementation barriers, many of which may well drastically impact their implementation beyond what would be expected from their abatement costs. The analysis implies that the relation between abatement costs and the barriers withholding implementation is not straightforward and calls for a deliberate policy debate on prioritization and policy intervention. The Y factor structures such a policy debate.
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