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ID:
150896
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| Summary/Abstract |
Liberalisation and the ever larger share of variable renewable energies (VRES), e.g. photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, affect security of supply (SoS). We develop a system dynamics model to analyse the impact of VRES on the investment decision process and to understand how SoS is affected. We focus on the Swiss electricity market, which is currently undergoing a liberalisation process, and simultaneously faces the encouragement of VRES and a nuclear phase out. Our results show that nuclear production is replaced mainly by PV and imports; the country becomes a net importer. This evolution points to a problem of capacity adequacy. The resulting price rise, together with the subsidies needed to support VRES, lead to a rise in tariffs. In the presence of a high share of hydro, the de-rated margin may give a misleading picture of the capacity adequacy. We thus propose a new metric, the annual energy margin, which considers the energy available from all sources, while acknowledging that hydro-storage can function as a battery. This measure shows a much less reassuring picture of the country’s capacity adequacy.
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| 2 |
ID:
171525
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| Summary/Abstract |
Switzerland has voted for a gradual nuclear phase-out, starting in 2019 with the decommissioning of a first nuclear reactor; however, there is still a debate about how the country will replace nuclear generation. Electricity markets are transitioning towards renewable sources such as hydro, wind and solar. The latter two could produce a mismatch between demand and supply. Combining renewables with storage is one way to address this challenge. This paper analyzes the feasibility of 100% renewable generation in Switzerland. We consider hydro and PV generation, combined with pumped hydro storage, to address the timing problem between demand and PV generation. We explore several combinations of installed solar capacity, reservoir levels and pumping capacity. Our findings indicate that given current technological development, Switzerland would need to double its pumping capacity, increase solar generation capacity by a factor between 13 and 25, while increasing reservoir size up to 100% depending on the installed solar capacity.
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