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| 1 |
ID:
172368
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| Summary/Abstract |
Indonesia fielded shocks due to the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) quite differently. Financial contagion, policy misdirection, panic and political upheaval saw the AFC bring economic collapse. The GFC, however, brought about real domestic growth of 6.1 per cent (2008) and 4.5 per cent (2009)—amongst the world’s best performances at the time. This paper reviews these events and employs numerical modelling of stylized AFC and GFC shocks to show that some of the contrast stems from differences in the shocks and intervening changes in Indonesia’s economic structure. Critically, IMF conditionality during the AFC required unsustainably contractionary reforms. Capital flight elements were present in both crises, however, and exchange rate depreciations and money-financed fiscal expansions are shown to have contributed significantly to resolution.
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| 2 |
ID:
175236
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| Summary/Abstract |
Oil is an important energy resource that guarantees the operation of a country's production and life. To reduce the losses caused by the interruption of oil imports, it is urgent to build a system with resilience. By referring to the idea of resilience evolution curve and analyzing the feedback relationship among the four sub-modules of China's oil import system, this paper established a system dynamics (SD) simulation model to study resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks. Then, according to the different parameter groups, we simulated the performance changes of the oil import system in different scenarios, calculated the values of system resilience in different situations, and analyzed the possible critical points that system can still maintain normal operation. i) Diversified measures can enhance system resilience and reduce losses. ii) When the external shocks are strong, the extraordinary production of coal-to-oil and public participation also play an important role in mitigating risks. iii) The increase of strategic crude oil reserves, conversion coefficient of crude oil, the company's ability to guarantee oil security and the ratio of energy substitution enhance system resilience effectively. iv) The threshold for the system to maintain stability is found under a certain scenario.
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| 3 |
ID:
151459
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| Summary/Abstract |
Recent research on authoritarian regimes argues that they provide public goods in order to prevent rebellion. This essay shows that the ‘threat of rebellion’ alone cannot explain Chinese party-state policies to extend public goods to rural residents in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Drawing on theories of policy making, it argues that China’s one-party regime extended public goods to the rural population under the influence of ideas and policy options generated by policy communities of officials, researchers, international organisations and other actors. The party-state centre adopted and implemented these ideas and policy options when they provided solutions to external shocks and supported economic development goals. Explanations of policies and their outcomes in authoritarian political systems need to include not only ‘dictators’ but also other actors, and the ideas they generate.
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