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ID: 152808

Exchange rates and international reserves in India: a frequency domain analysis / Tiwari, Aviral Kumar ; Kyophilavong, Phouphet

Tiwari, Aviral Kumar	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

This article aims to study the relationship between real effective exchange rate (REER) and international reserve in India by applying the bivariate and conditional bivariate Granger causality test in frequency domain framework proposed by Breitung and Candelon (2006). The variables that are included to condition the frequency domain are the industrial production index, stock prices and wholesale producer index. Results found the evidence of business cyclical causality running from international reserve to REER for frequencies between 0.01 and 1.63 that corresponds to the 4 months and higher months cycles in India. The results have a strong bearing on the policy implications of India and any country alike it. The study concludes that the Reserve Bank of India should consider exchange rate as a grave determinant to manage appropriate forex reserve.

Key Words

Exchange Rates ; International Reserves ; Frequency Domain Granger Causality

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ID: 159019

Mercantilism and China's hunger for international reserves / Schröder, Marcel

MarcelSchröder	Journal Article
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This paper is motivated by the popular view that the surge in China's foreign exchange reserves is due to a distortionary exchange rate policy aimed at keeping the real exchange rate undervalued to support export-led growth. It undertakes an in-depth empirical investigation to quantify how much “mercantilist” and “precautionary” motives have contributed to the reserve build-up in China during 1998Q4-2011Q4. A substantial problem is that theory is consistent with employing two vastly differing approaches to defining and estimating the role of mercantilist reserve accumulation. A priori, either method could generate misleading results. The study shows, however, that the distinction between the two approaches is immaterial in China's case. The results suggest that mercantilism accounts for less than 10% of reserve accumulation. Precautionary motives and other factors seem to be the dominant determinants of the surge in China's international reserves.

Key Words

China ; Demand ; Mercantilism ; International Reserves ; Precautionary

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