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ID:
164674
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the appointment of male versus female career diplomats to ambassadorial posts. We assess the role played by ambassadors’ individual characteristics, including education, marital status, and number of children, and host countries’ characteristics, such as quality of life and regime type, in determining if a male or female is appointed to ambassadorial positions to represent the United States in foreign countries. The time frame of this study is the entire presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush (1993–2008), during which 603 career diplomats were appointed as ambassadors. The study provides empirical evidence that there remain significant differences between women and men serving as ambassadors. Female ambassadors are more likely to be single and have no children and are less likely to be Ivy League graduates than male ambassadors. Furthermore, they are more likely to be appointed to countries with lower quality of life and better human rights records. Finally, time plays a role in the likelihood of a woman being appointed as ambassador.
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| 2 |
ID:
152883
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article is one of the first to systematically assess the ability of state fragility measures to predict violent protests and adverse regime changes in countries. We focus on the Arab Spring as an example of a situation that such measures ought to predict. Through a variety of analyses, we find that none of the measures are predictive. We then create a simple model using the literature of protest and revolts to predict both the level of violence and the extent of regime change in the Arab Spring countries. This simpler model does a better job of predicting the level of involvement in the Arab Spring than any of the complex State Fragility Indexes. Thus, the goal of this article is not to explain the causes of the Arab Spring, but to add to the discussion of the predictive value of measures of instability.
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