| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the consequences of sudden regime changes in North Korea.
The study considers how large volumes of refugees would affect South Korea and
other neighboring countries. It also proposes likely countermeasures for South
Korea and its allies. If sudden regime change in North Korea were to lead to largescale
refugees entering China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea; it could bring
massive changes in the balance of power in Northeast Asia. A refugee crisis of this
magnitude demands meticulous planning to minimize unexpected consequences
to the region. This paper examines the following questions: What is the decisionmaking
process that refugees undergo when deciding to leave North Korea? What
would be the volume of North Korean refugees heading into China, Russia, and
Japan? What would be the volume of refugees entering South Korea? What would
be the most likely routes taken by refugees? This study analyzes these questions and
suggests policy implications for the South Korean government.
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