| Summary/Abstract |
The annexation of Crimea and occupation of parts of Donbas removed from Ukraine’s electorate 3.5 million voters that had previously voted heavily for pro-Russian parties. Examining the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections, this article asks two questions: how might the results of the election have been different had voters in occupied Donbas been able to vote? Do 2019 voting patterns support the thesis that the Ukrainian electorate had significantly changed its values in the period 2014–2019 or had long-standing cleavages endured? Voter alignments identified before 2014 persisted, with important implications for Russia’s efforts to win influence in Ukraine. The weakening of pro-Russian parties caused by Russia’s invasion in 2014 helped create the conditions in which Russia could not achieve its goals without an all-out invasion.
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