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| 1 |
ID:
155659
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| 2 |
ID:
155259
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| Summary/Abstract |
This essay, written before Donald J. Trump’s election as 45th President of the United States, sought to divine a “Trump doctrine” on national security and foreign policy, based on what Mr. Trump himself said and wrote over the preceding decades. It shows Mr. Trump’s sympathy for a unilateralist (but not the pejorative isolationist of which some charge him) approach to defining American interests and for strategic ambiguity in dealing with America’s adversaries. There, in fact, is a sizeable body of material from which to discern the contours of his thinking in these areas, much of it quite prescient. What some find disorientating is that Mr. Trump never felt compelled to synthesize it into a definitive “Trump doctrine,” or at least not one that satisfied the orthodoxy.
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| 3 |
ID:
158798
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| 4 |
ID:
179799
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| Summary/Abstract |
On the campaign trail, then-candidate Donald Trump expressed a desire to pioneer an unpredictable US foreign policy that would both deceive opponents and disrupt the status quo. Academic and media commentators readily labelled this Trump’s ‘Unpredictability Doctrine’ and have since debated its merits and demerits. Beyond inevitable partisan divides, however, these responses also revealed enormous disagreement over conceptualizations of unpredictability and its impacts, raising fundamental questions for the IR discipline and the foreign policy analysis it informs. What are the ontological and epistemological roots of unpredictability in international politics? How can scholars simultaneously grapple with the conundrums posed by erratic actors and the larger, ever-changing systems they shape? This article unravels the philosophy of science (PoS) issues inherent in theorizing unpredictability, offering a novel, synthesized typology. Recognizing that PoS assumptions both frame accounts of unpredictability and represent a source of uncertainty, this article instead advocates epistemological humility, offering a new typology that transcends assumptions and facilitates dialogue between camps. This typology includes three ‘buckets’ of unpredictability – risk, uncertainty and complexity – that can be interpreted according to varying philosophy of science traditions. When applied empirically, this terminology helps contextualize analysis and expose oftentimes overlooked contours of US foreign policymaking.
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| 5 |
ID:
173154
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| Summary/Abstract |
Amidst the cacophony of the Trump presidency, is it possible to unearth the logic behind his foreign policy? Do his strategy and tactics stem from him or are they a response to the changing international structure? This article addresses these questions and seeks to evaluate the Trump administration’s foreign policy record on its own terms by examining his methods and objectives through three frames: ‘Art of the Deal’, ‘Make America Great Again’, and ‘Stable Genius’. By applying these frameworks to three cases: (1) migration, (2) NATO funding and (3) trade, the article finds that, in general, the policies and methods of the administration have been unable to achieve the President’s stated goals in the global arena. In conducting this analysis and evaluation, the article makes a novel contribution to understanding the policy and philosophy of the Trump administration’s foreign policy and enhances understanding of the policy outcomes that US diplomacy is attempting to achieve.
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