| Summary/Abstract |
’The post–Cold War peace dividend has been spent; the perception of the global strategic environment is one based in uncertainty with multiple, simultaneous, and diffuse threats wherein “crisis” is constant, conflict is pervasive, and instability is contagious. In such a dynamic, complex, and volatile environment, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive risk assessment mechanism to focus attention, funnel resources, and drive activities prior to acute instability. By leveraging existing academic and DoD forecasting models with diverging strengths and weaknesses, this framework will map the social and structural factors that shape the character of instability to depict states in which there is a volatile environment; identify the destabilizing conditions and existing friction points that are likely to drive the development of instability; and detect specific triggering events and tipping processes that could aggravate those conditions and ignite acute instability.
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