| Summary/Abstract |
What is the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on interstate conflict? Do nuclearizing states invite preventive attacks? If so, which states are likely to take such military actions? After dividing states into three groups – nuclear, nuclearizing, and non-nuclear – this study argues that once a state starts to develop nuclear weapons, it becomes a likely target of preventive attacks due to its uncertain capability and intention. Nuclear states are particularly expected to be aggressive against nuclearizing states due to the former’s perceived loss from nuclear proliferation. With empirical support from a statistical analysis from 1950 to 2000, this study implies that nuclear spread decreases international security because both its process (entailing the existence of a nuclear development program) and its desired outcome (achieving development of nuclear armaments) create targets and initiators of preventive conflicts.
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