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BLUM, JOHANNES
(2)
answer(s).
Srl
Item
1
ID:
162243
Defense Burden and the Effect of Democracy: Evidence from a Spatial Panel Analysis
/ Blum, Johannes
Blum, Johannes
Journal Article
0 Rating(s) & 0 Review(s)
Summary/Abstract
Do democracies spend less on national defense? This paper provides new evidence of the effect of democracy on defense burden based on a Spatial Durbin Model with panel data for 98 countries for the years 1992–2008. While democracy measured by means of an index variable covering the entire range from perfect democracy to perfect autocracy turns out to be insignificant, dummy variables indicating transition to higher levels of democracy reveal a statistically highly significant negative effect of democracy on a country’s defense burden. Allowing for country-specific effects reveals heterogeneity in the effect of democracy across countries. Apart from the effect of democracy, the estimation results indicate strong spatial dependence of military burdens across countries. Moreover, they provide statistical evidence for a peace dividend, for substitution effects in defense spending and for a negative effect on the military burden for countries when they exhibit a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit.
Key Words
Democracy
;
Military Spending
;
Panel Data
;
Defense Economics
;
Spatial Lag Model
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2
ID:
175311
Does a Change of Government Influence Compliance with International Agreements? Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two Percent Targ
/ Blum, Johannes; Potrafke, Niklas
Potrafke, Niklas
Journal Article
0 Rating(s) & 0 Review(s)
Summary/Abstract
We examine whether changes of government influence compliance with international agreements. We investigate compliance with the NATO two percent target to which all NATO countries committed themselves during the NATO summit in Wales in 2014. The dataset includes the military expenditure by NATO countries over the period 2010–2018. The results suggest that countries that do not (yet) comply with the two percent target have smaller growth rates in military expenditure relative to GDP when they experienced a large change of government, e.g. a change from a rightwing to a leftwing government, than countries that did not experience such a large change of government since the NATO summit in 2014. Countries that experienced a large change of government are, thus, less likely to comply with the two percent target. Future research should examine the credibility problem of national governments in other international agreements too.
Key Words
NATO
;
Military Expenditure
;
International Agreements
;
Compliance
;
Burden Sharing
;
Credibility
;
Time Inconsistency
;
Change of Government
;
Two Percent Target
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