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SIMULATION MODEL (5) answer(s).
 
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ID:   177106


Fuel switching as an option for medium-term emission reduction - a model-based analysis of reactions to price signals and regula / Rehfeldt, Matthias   Journal Article
Rehfeldt, Matthias Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract The German federal government has set a target for German industry to reduce its GHG emissions by 49%–51% by 2030 compared to 1990. Fuel switching to electricity and biomass is a potential measure to meet this target. In this article, we simulate the contribution of fuel switching by applying economic incentives and regulatory measures. The policy instruments of a CO2 price and technology-specific subsidies are applied with varying intensity. In addition, we simulate accelerated stock replacement and a ban on new fossil-based steam generation systems. Results show that combining fuel switching and energy efficiency could achieve emission reductions of 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 only combined with considerable economic pressure (up to 300 €/tCO2) and financial support for electricity-based process heating.
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2
ID:   171408


How to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the freight sector: policy insights from a technology-adoption model of Canada / Hammond, William; Axsen, Jonn ; Kjeang, Erik   Journal Article
Axsen, Jonn Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract Freight or goods-movement transportation accounts for 6% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 10% of emissions in our case study of Canada – mostly from heavy-duty trucks. Little research has explored the types of policies needed to achieve 2050 GHG mitigation goals in the land freight sector, i.e., 80% reductions from 2005 levels. We use a behaviourally-realistic technology-adoption model (CIMS-Freight) to simulate the GHG impacts of several climate policies, individually and in combinations, on the land freight sector (trucking and rail). Results indicate that current policies in Canada (including standards and carbon pricing) will not achieve GHG reduction targets for this sector – in fact, emissions continue to rise. Further, no individual policy has a high probability of achieving 2030 or 2050 GHG targets, including more stringent versions of the carbon tax, fuel efficiency standards, low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS), or a zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate for trucks. Finally, we identify several policy combinations that have a high probability of achieving 2050 goals, in particular a stringent ZEV mandate for trucks complemented by a stringent LCFS. While other effective policies and policy combinations are possible, Canada's present and proposed policies are not stringent enough to reach deep GHG targets.
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3
ID:   166471


Impact of gate closure time on the efficiency of power systems balancing / Petitet, Marie   Journal Article
Petitet, Marie Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract This paper focuses on market design options for operational balancing management in self-dispatch electric power systems. In particular, it investigates the most relevant timing for the balancing gate closure, when competitors' decisions on the setting of controllable assets are neutralized and this responsibility is simultaneously transferred to the system operator. This discussion is central in the development and implementation of the European Electricity Balancing Guideline. Based on a multi-level simulation tool with a realistic modelling of short-term power system operations, this paper proposes the first quantitative assessment of postponing the balancing gate closure time from 1 h to 15 min ahead of the imbalance settlement period. For different environments (energy mix, power plant capabilities, outages, etc), the results highlight that postponing the balancing gate closure time from 1 h to 15 min increases the operational cost of the system. Based on robust and scalable results, we show that this difference is mainly due to a better coordination of the available resources by the central decision maker.
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4
ID:   162278


Modelling national policy making to promote bioenergy in heat, transport and electricity to 2030 – Interactions, impacts and con / Clancy, John Matthew   Journal Article
Clancy, John Matthew Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract Governments must increase bioenergy use to realise the Paris agreement ambition. Most countries have limited biomass resources and policy goals beyond carbon reduction. This can lead to policy incoherence. Previous studies tended to focus on one end-use sector or on optimising CO2 reduction. This study goes beyond optimisation approaches and investigates cross sector impacts of bioenergy policy proposals via simulation methods for policy proposals in Ireland. As an EU member with ambition for increased bioenergy use, Ireland is a useful case to examine trade-offs. Using the BioHEAT policy decision support tool (Durusut et al., 2018) we find policy in the heat and transport sector close the gap to Ireland's 2030 climate targets by 3%. Policy supporting co-firing of biomass with fossil-fuel to produce electricity increases emissions by 8.3 MtCO2 overall and reduces the policy impact on national climate targets by 63%. Co-firing uses more of the available biomass resources and this limits renewable uptake in the heat sector. Coal conversions and the use of advanced biofuels are found to rely on high availability of imports. Policy supporting biomass use in the power sector may make national climate targets less achievable for EU countries.
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5
ID:   168643


Simulation-based appraisal of tax-induced electro-mobility promotion in Iceland and prospects for energy-economic development / Shafiei, Ehsan   Journal Article
Shafiei, Ehsan Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract Transition to electric vehicles (EVs) requires multidimensional policy measures incorporating vehicle fleets, energy systems, consumer behaviours, and socio-economic developments. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the implications of a tax-induced EV transition in Iceland for GHG mitigation, energy security, and economic benefits. The analytical tools include a techno-economic simulation model of the integrated energy-transport system which is linked to an Icelandic macroeconomic general equilibrium model. The impact of a new tax reform proposal by the government is compared with the current vehicle tax policy. The government proposal scenario is also examined under further inducements for EVs incorporating a value added tax exemption and banning the sale of new petroleum fuel vehicles. All scenarios are examined under a wide range of future changes in petroleum fuel prices and EV cost reduction. The results indicate that the overall macroeconomic benefits will be negligible, but they are expected to be positive in the long term as road electrification is deepened. The results show that although the tax-induced technological solution aimed at encouraging the adoption of EVs will enable a deep GHG emissions reduction in the long term, it will not be enough to meet the short-term climate targets.
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