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ID:
162293
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| Summary/Abstract |
The technical and financial influences that shape customer investment in behind-the-meter PV and battery systems, provide the means to forecast and quantify customer energy transitions. By utilising techno-economic scenario analysis, this research assists policymakers to understand the impacts of their decisions on future energy market relationships between the customer and utilities. Two case studies are presented, firstly to evaluate the influence of annual increases in usage charges, and secondly the level of feed-in tariff compensation on customer PV and battery investment over a 15-year forecast period located in Perth, Australia. The findings indicate that even without annual increases in usage charges, the falling installation costs of PV and battery technologies will make customer PV-battery systems financially viable within the 15-year forecast period. Additionally, the removal of the feed-in tariff leads to greater reductions in eventual grid consumption. By the end of the forecast period, customer PV-battery systems with the highest financial performance are able to reduce grid consumption above 90% resulting in significant energy resources being transferred out of the energy market. This necessitates the market integration of customer energy resources and provides an opportunity to leverage a combination of customer and utility energy resources for the renewable energy transition.
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| 2 |
ID:
180850
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| Summary/Abstract |
With Australia's significant existing household PV capacity, decreasing battery costs may lead to widespread household PV-battery adoption. As the sizing of these systems are heavily influenced by retail tariffs, this paper analyses the effect of flat retail tariffs on households free to invest in PV battery systems. Using Perth, Australia for context, an open-source model is used to simulate household PV battery investments over a 20-year period. We find that flat usage and feed-in tariffs lead to distinct residual demand patterns as households' transition from PV-only to PV-battery systems. Qualitatively analysing these patterns from the bottom-up, we identify transitional tipping points that may challenge future electricity system management, market participation and energy policies. The continued use of flat tariffs incentivises PV-battery households to maximise self-consumption, which reduces annual grid-imports, increases annual grid-exports, and shifts residual demand towards winter. Diurnal and seasonal demand patterns continue to change as PV-battery households eventually become net-generators. Unmanaged, these bottom-up changes may complicate energy decarbonisation efforts within centralised electricity markets and suggest that policymakers should prepare for PV-battery households to play a more active role in the energy system.
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ID:
169722
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| Summary/Abstract |
Falling costs of solar PV and battery technologies are continuously changing the customer relationship with their electricity network. By managing their own self-generation, customers are able to place natural selection pressure on utilities to evolve. The devised techno-economic simulation model projects residential PV and battery investment decisions over 20 years in Perth, Australia to quantify the potential market impacts from policy and customer investment conditions. Using real-world demand and insolation profiles from 261 households, this research evaluates how cumulative customer PV and battery investments changes the network and market operating conditions, while under the influence of various feed-in tariff values. The results indicate that high feed-in tariff policy costs in the short-term, make it economically challenging to prevent or restrain significant residential PV-battery adoption in the longer-term. Moreover, continuous increases in residential PV-battery system installations eventually lead to annual net-exports substantially exceeding net-imports on the distribution network. This significant shift in network operation provides an opportunity for policymakers to utilise behind-the-meter PV-battery investments and decentralised energy markets to meet wider renewable energy and decarbonisation goals.
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