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| 1 |
ID:
163545
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| Summary/Abstract |
Japan’s laws to promote nuclear power, including the Dengen Sampo (the Three Electric Power Laws), have accelerated nuclear reactor construction via subsidies, grants, and other incentives. These laws also have had the perverse effects of discouraging promotion of safety as the highest priority, with consequences that can be seen in the Fukushima nuclear disaster. If the government decides to restart a portion of the reactor fleet, experience indicates that another serious nuclear accident could be expected again. Accidents, in effect, represent a recurring cost which should be built into business plans. Although improvements in reliability and safety will certainly be made, legislation alone cannot guarantee that these actions will create a culture of safety. Inevitably, the complex systems associated with nuclear reactors and the overwhelming influence of corporate officers who are focused on cutting costs in the near-term will make safety improvement an uphill battle. These factors are symptomatic of a worldwide nuclear industry that views safety as a cost to be managed. Unless the industry is incentivized to consider safety improvements as a source of greater profits in the long-term, the industry will continue to have a mindset of negligence toward safety.
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| 2 |
ID:
166318
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| Summary/Abstract |
Our review of worldwide nuclear accident data shows Japan has had more nuclear accidents of greater severity than other countries. Cultural and geological factors likely combined to increase the severity of accidents, while policies designed to incentivize expansion of the reactor fleet likely increased the consequences of accidents. Cost estimates for the Fukushima disaster have doubled to $220 billion, and a literature review indicates total accident costs could exceed $500 billion. Indirect costs could increase that amount even more. To mitigate risk of future accidents, Japan could consider constructing a new fleet of 25 highly advanced reactors and require plant owners to establish set-asides to pay for future accidents in much the same way banks set aside funds to cover loan losses. This would build a profit motive into improving safety protocols and incentivize businesses to foster a stronger safety culture. At the same time, Japan might increase investments in clean fuels, such as hydrogen, to ensure it has feasible alternatives for successfully achieving safe, economically viable, and secure forms of energy.
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