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| 1 |
ID:
179957
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigated the causal linkages among democracy, regime durability and terrorism for a panel of 53 African countries over the period 1980-2012. Due to the count nature of terrorism data, the study employs a negative binomial regression estimator. The empirical analysis is based on four terrorism types namely: domestic, transnational, uncertain and total terrorism respectively. The following are the key findings: First, with the exception of the specification relating to uncertain terrorism, the unconditional effect of democracy was found to be negative on the other three dimensions of terrorism. Second, the unconditional impact of regime durability was also positive on terrorism with the exception of uncertain terrorism but in a rather inconsistent manner. Third, the interactions between democracy and regime durability are found to have positive marginal effects on all the terrorism types except uncertain terrorism. Fourth, the net effects of interaction between democracy and regime durability are positive across various models of these terrorism measures. Lastly, the theoretical priors of other covariates are equally validated across different measures of terrorism. On the policy arena, mitigating terrorism would require embracing democratic regime and mainstreaming the concomitant doctrines into the politico-institutional architecture but not without moderation in regime elongation.
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| 2 |
ID:
164827
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| Summary/Abstract |
Ethiopia experienced a critical juncture in 1991 with the defeat of the military dictatorship, opening up the possibilities of a new political order. Since then the country underwent social engineering and institutional transformation emerging as a leading reformist state under hegemonic-party rule with high institutional state capacity but also a concentration, and even personalisation, of decision-making power. This approximates to a path of ‘authoritarian institutionalisation’. This article argues that Ethiopia’s institutional trajectory can be explained by the nature of coalition politics in the formative years of transition, specifically the extent to which credible challengers were excluded from transitional processes. The strategy of excluding Pan-Ethiopian parties and sideling the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) set the country on the path of establishing a hegemonic rule by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Sustaining hegemonic rule entailed fending off threats from excluded groups in the 1990s but which coalesced into a strong electoral performance in the 2005 elections in whose aftermath the ruling party embarked on aggressive pursuit of state-directed development for political legitimation.
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