| Summary/Abstract |
How does the anticipation of external support affect dictators’ domestic political behavior? We lack a convincing explanation for why authoritarian leaders often attempt to consolidate power in ways that heighten the risk of violence and endanger the regime. Adapting the moral hazard framework from the alliance literature, I argue that the anticipation of military support from allies lowers the potential costs of regime purges. This reduces the incentives for dictators to govern inclusively, encouraging more aggressive coup-proofing actions and generating a higher risk of retaliatory violence. Using new data on elite purges in authoritarian regimes, I find that defensive alliances increase the propensity of dictators to aggressively consolidate power. In addition, these types of alliances lead to purges of more powerful elites, which, in turn, increase the likelihood of post-purge large-scale violence. By contrast, forms of external support that entail less commitment by the patron do not have these effects. I provide an overview of the origins of the 1998–1999 civil war in Guinea-Bissau to complement the novel empirical results and to illustrate the causal logic of the argument in the context of West African alliance politics.
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