| Summary/Abstract |
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), since its inception in late 2013, has drawn
tremendous global attention. The views of political leaders, business people,
the media, and analysts on the prospect of the BRI are ostensibly polarized.
One group asserts that the BRI will dramatically increase Beijing’s global influence, particularly in China’s neighborhood. Another group surmises that the
BRI is expected to fail because of insurmountable challenges and is expected
to fail. This article joins the debate by exploring the impact of the BRI on
Southeast Asia’s regional order. The author holds a middle-ground position
and argues that the actual impact of the BRI should neither be easily dismissed nor overestimated. More likely, through the BRI, China’s influence in
Southeast Asia will increase but not to the extent of forging a Sinocentric
order in the region. This can be explained by three major factors: (a) the
responses of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its member
states toward the BRI, (b) the effects of alternative infrastructure initiatives
proposed by other major powers in Southeast Asia, and (c) China’s questionable ability to deliver its BRI promises.
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