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| 1 |
ID:
165051
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| 2 |
ID:
165057
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| Summary/Abstract |
Since the nuclearization of South Asia, in 1998, the relationship between two nuclear armed neighbors—India and Pakistan—is often explained and discussed in a Cold War context. Uneasy with the changed geostrategic realities of nuclear deterrence in South Asia, India is adopting limited conventional war strategies against Pakistan, pursuing Ballistic Missile Defense, and possibly adopting a first-strike strategy that shifts from India’s declared no-first-use policy of nuclear weapons. This study analyzes how Indian space-based capabilities augment its Ballistic Missile Defense program and its aspirations of a first-strike based on preemption. Subsequently, the article draws linkages between Indian space-based capabilities, including anti-satellite weapons, and impacts on strategic stability in South Asia.
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| 3 |
ID:
165054
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| Summary/Abstract |
Despite political, technological, and economic constraints, Pakistan is considered an aspiring space power with a relatively modest space program compared to the larger, more successful ones of China and India. Innovative leadership, smart allocation of national resources, and political will are all necessary for any country to progress in such a high-technology field. The Chinese and Indian space programs pose unique challenges and opportunities for Pakistan. Rivalry with India over its regional and extra-regional ambitions means that Pakistan would have to give serious thought towards bolstering its space program as part of its national outlook in the twenty-first century. Pakistan can utilize cordial relations with China to improve its nascent space infrastructure through collaborative efforts to gain eventual self-sufficiency for socioeconomic and strategic purposes in the South Asian region. While Pakistan may not have the economic clout of a bigger power, it can utilize the “Space 2.0” concept of multilateral and public-private partnerships to empower its space program, enhance its domestic scientific and technological base, and build an indigenous space industry that can reap dividends at home and abroad. This can also benefit Pakistan’s needs to maintain strategic parity with India and stake its own claims as an emerging space nation.
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| 4 |
ID:
165056
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| Summary/Abstract |
Space competition and the risk of military conflict in space are emerging as key features of the twenty-first-century geopolitical environment. Although there is a natural focus on the risk of military conflict in space between the United States, China, and Russia, South Asian security will also be affected by space competition. Indian space capabilities are developing rapidly, and are emerging as one of the more advanced regional space programs; there is clear risk that Chinese and Indian space competition will increase. A key feature of twenty-first-century space security dynamics is Space 2.0, in which commercial space actors can exploit new technologies and approaches to accessing and utilizing space. For India, exploiting Space 2.0 is an important step, in particular to balance Chinese counterspace capabilities.
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| 5 |
ID:
165053
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| Summary/Abstract |
There is an ongoing debate on an India-China space race. Both states have made investments in the space domain for the last few decades for social, scientific, commercial, and military reasons. The January 2007 anti-satellite test conducted by China significantly raised international concerns on issues concerning space security. China’s strategic space program is witnessing major advances, and China’s attainments in the space arena in terms of its financial investments, expanse of programs, technology proficiency, and future plans are ahead of those of India. At the same time, both states are pursuing programs such as the development of navigational networks and missions to the Moon and Mars. In this context, it is of interest to analyze China’s increasing focus on satellite technologies and India’s response. This article analyzes the possible manifestation of a “security dilemma” in the context of outer space among these states and concludes that the dilemma is suggestive, but not definitive.
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| 6 |
ID:
165052
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| Summary/Abstract |
The peculiar nature of bilateral relations between the United States and China in space is the triggering point of a space security trilemma in South Asia. The spill-over effect of a misperception-misunderstanding dynamic between the United States and China in outer space has brought strategic transformation between the bilateral relations among India-China, India-Pakistan, and China-Pakistan, accentuating a security trilemma. All three states give high importance to their national space programs to achieve socioeconomic goals and to fulfill their national security needs. All three states also recognize the strategic importance of space as a new arena of war. However, the power asymmetry in South Asia has highlighted space-related capabilities as a potent medium of progress and power accumulation. As a result, the challenges in space have triggered and magnified the security trilemma for the South Asian rivals, interconnecting China, India, and Pakistan in the context of an international security complex.
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| 7 |
ID:
165055
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| Summary/Abstract |
South Asia is in part volatile because of the historical rivalry between India and Pakistan. After non-conventional and conventional military buildups in the past, an arms race in the domain of outer space is now a possibility. Space is an advantageous frontier for military uses. In this context, the consensus in international law defines space as a global commons to be used for peaceful purposes. Nonetheless, space powers, including India, engage in space militarization, which can lead to the weaponization of space. India is motivated in this regard by aspirations of regional hegemony and to balance its capabilities with respect to China in an effort to counter China’s increasing influence in South Asia. These developments posit adverse effects on the strategic equation in South Asia, leading to strategic instability, and can undermine nuclear deterrence and bring about a South Asian arms race in space. Moreover, the security dilemma in South Asia has prompted defensive and offensive reactions from rival states in the region, exacerbating repercussions on the South Asian strategic landscape. Analysis of the issues suggests that keeping space free from weaponization can alleviate strategic instability in South Asia.
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