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| 1 |
ID:
171410
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| Summary/Abstract |
Earlier emission peak and higher reduction rate after the peak are crucial for China's domestic low-carbon energy transformations and the 2 °C global climate target. However, much remains to be resolved concerning long-term sectoral and regional coping strategies. In this study, we developed a spatial downscaling framework to identify the roles played by different provinces and sectors in promoting early emission peak, and the spatiotemporal variations of city-level reduction potentials for the building sector by coupling an integrated assessment model with openly available information. Simulations show that peaking emissions five years earlier means an additional 12.5 Gt CO2 emission cut during 2015–2035 and building sector needs to increase renewable penetration to 22% and further improve emission efficiency by 12%, which are both greater than other end use sectors. More developed eastern regions would peak earlier than national target and some central cities are expected to double their per capita building emissions. While for the less developed northern and western regions to peak on time it is necessary that the gap of CO2 emission intensity between these cities and national average narrow down from 9.8t/thousand RMB in 2020 to 5.9t/thousand RMB in 2030.
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| 2 |
ID:
166725
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| Summary/Abstract |
Scattered coal consumption in the building sector contributes approximately 40% of China's primary fine particulate matter emissions and 10% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, posing serious threats to climate change mitigation and air quality. Therefore, a shift from coal to natural gas (NG) and electricity is of great significance for the synergistic reduction of air pollutants and carbon emissions. However, the lack of building energy statistics at finer spatial scales makes it difficult to form targeted local strategies. In this study, a spatial downscaling framework was developed to project building energy consumption with higher resolution based on openly available information. Then, major air pollutant emission reductions induced by scattered coal substitution policies were estimated from national, provincial and city perspectives. The role played by buildings in realizing the overall carbon mitigation potential was also evaluated. The results show that a policy-driven increase in NG and electricity consumption during the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period could contribute 15% and 4% to national SO2 and NOx emission control targets, respectively, and is helpful for some less-developed areas in achieving greater health benefits and faster low-carbon transformation. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed according to regional differences in emission reduction performance and socioeconomic development.
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