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ID:
166952
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| Summary/Abstract |
The rise of the shale gas industry and the need for clean, low-carbon energy transformation in China has meant that the relationship between domestic and foreign natural gas markets has become closer. Therefore, identifying the changing relationships between the major global natural gas markets and China's natural gas market has important practical value for the current Chinese domestic natural gas pricing system. This paper used the DCC-GARCH-NARDL-ARDL-ECM as the analytical framework to study these relationships, from which it was found that there was no unified global natural gas market and that China's natural gas market was not yet aligned with this market. It was shown that there was no significant asymmetry in the impact of international gas prices on China's gas prices as no flexible adjustment measures were found in China's imported natural gas pricing mechanism. Moreover, while international natural gas prices were found to have a significant impact on China's natural gas prices over the long term, there were obvious regional differences over the short term. Accordingly, new pricing policies should be designed to promote market-oriented natural gas pricing reforms in acknowledging features such as asymmetry, the difference between imported gas sources and the periodicity of price adjustment.
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| 2 |
ID:
181439
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| Summary/Abstract |
As one of the important measures for China's power system reform, the electricity bidding pricing (EBP) is helpful to realize the effective allocation of power resources. Based on price conduction theory and complex network modeling technology, we construct the price transmission network for the 76 economic sectors in China, identify the critical path of electricity price transmission, and empirically simulate and analyze the economic impact of EBP in different scenarios from the two aspects of whether the CEPL mechanism is implemented or not. The results indicate that the electricity price will be decreased directly by the EBP, and the electricity industry will significantly reduce the impact on other related industries. Particularly, affected by regulatory policies such as electricity price cap, the electricity price caused by EBP cannot be effectively transmitted to the upstream industries. Secondly, with the simultaneous implementation of the coal-electricity price linkage (CEPL) and the EBP, the coal-electricity price transmission will change from one-way conduction style to two-way interaction style, and the impact of electricity price fluctuations on its related industries will be more significant, while the comprehensive impact of the coal industry on its associated industries will be significantly reduced. Thirdly, there are obvious scenario differences in the impact of different intensity of EBP on the macro-economy. The results show that under the mechanism of CEPL, the EBP with 20% of the total power used for bidding pilot has minimal impact on the Chinese economy. Based on the above conclusions, we propose that China should scientifically determine the scale and the pilot regions of electricity bidding under the CEPL, develop more diversified bidding forms and improve more robust supervision system.
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