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| 1 |
ID:
167020
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| Summary/Abstract |
Carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies are crucial for achieving long-term climate change goals in China. Drawing on the 45Q tax credit provisions enacted by the U.S., three subsidy modes, two scenarios and two carbon emission reduction options are developed in this study, in which the real options approach combined with a trinomial tree model is employed to evaluate investment decisions made by coal-fired power plants (CFPP) in China. The results show that offering a 12-year CO2 storage subsidy to full-chain CCUS CFPP provides the motivation needed for CCUS investment during the 12-year subsidy period; however the economic benefits of such investment cannot be sustained over the 40-year lifetime. It's economically viable for CFPP to capture 90% CO2 emissions and sell them to oil enterprises for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) over a 40-year period. Besides, for full-chain CCUS CFPP the incentive effects of the 45Q subsidy mode and the full initial investment plus operation and maintenance (I + O&M) subsidy mode are much more suited to the 40-year emission reduction option, whereas the simple O&M subsidy mode is more suitable for the 12-year emission reduction option. However, for CO2-EOR projects, there is no significant difference between the three subsidy modes.
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| 2 |
ID:
171485
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| Summary/Abstract |
The “13th Five-Year Plan” for wind power has proposed that it will reach grid parity and compete with power and hydropower. Accordingly, many doubts have been raised. Is the wind power in China already equipped with conditions for grid parity? What is the impact on the development of wind power? To solve these doubts, this study employs a system dynamics model to judge whether China can achieve grid parity for wind power. First, the factor indicator system is constructed from the aspects of wind power production, consumption, and curtailment. Second, the trend of wind power curtailment, cost, revenue, and installed capacity are predicted from 2005 to 2030. Third, three scenarios are set to simulate the impact of grid parity on wind power. Empirical results show that: (1) Net revenue and installed capacity will continue to increase, while the wind power curtailment will gradually reduce. (2) When the subsidy is decreased to 0, revenue will significantly reduce, and the installed capacity will reduce by nearly 1/4. (3) The Chinese government should not abolish all subsidies for wind power to achieve grid parity in 2020. To prompt the process for the grid parity of wind power, some policy implications are proposed.
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| 3 |
ID:
178817
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| Summary/Abstract |
In June 2019, China significantly changed its unconventional natural gas subsidy policy, changing the subsidy mode from a comprehensive quota standard mode to a competitive mode, aiming to reduce its subsidy pressure and channel subsidies to specific projects that are needed to increase annual and winter electricity production. Through a brief introduction of China's cleaner energy goals and a comparative analysis of the new and old subsidy policies, the orientations and impacts of the new policy are interpreted. By comparing the changes in subsidy quota, production and price of three kinds of unconventional natural gas (shale gas, tight gas and CBM) over the past ten years, in combination with the generalized Weng model, the impact of subsidy on unconventional natural gas production is quantified. The development trend of unconventional natural gas under the new policy is forecasted on the premise that the total amount of subsidy and sales price remain unchanged.. The sensitivity of three kinds of unconventional natural gas to different subsidies is analyzed. The impact of the new policy on the change in gas production curve is illustrated after comparing the optimal production plans for typical shale gas wells under the new and old policies. The results show that shale gas and CBM may be negatively affected, while the development of tight gas may be promoted; in the future, tight gas and shale gas will dominate, while the development of CBM will be tough. The new policy will stimulate the production enterprises to adopt the plan of high initial production and high decline rate, which may lead to a reduction in total gas production and resources utilization efficiency.
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| 4 |
ID:
180140
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| Summary/Abstract |
How do we design clean energy subsidies to deliver greater benefits to society? Analytical answers to this question are scarce. Modeling should address both direct benefits from stimulating consumer adoption the year the subsidy is paid as well as indirect benefits from lowering future technology costs. We develop a benefit-cost analysis of residential solar subsidies in the US, disaggregated by state, accounting for technological progress, consumer adoption, and carbon and criteria emission reductions. We assess existing solar subsidies and also find the optimal subsidy schedule that maximizes net benefits starting in the year 2018. In the base case the national flexible optimal subsidy schedule begins at $585/kW and declines to zero in 14 years. The optimal subsidy starts higher and falls more quickly than the current federal tax credit, due to long-term benefits from early cost reductions and the need to reduce subsidies as a technology becomes cheaper. We also estimate state-by-state flexible subsidies which result in higher net benefits compared to a homogenous national subsidy ($2.8 billion versus $1.0 billion). Neglecting criteria pollution benefits, optimal subsidies accounting for technological progress and consumer behavior cost the government $45–49 per ton of carbon abated, much lower than the total abatement cost.
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