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| 1 |
ID:
168773
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China. Based on a dataset featuring China's partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China's diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms’ decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as non‐central firms and non‐Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries, which is consistent with China's diplomatic focus. Our research proves that China's diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.
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| 2 |
ID:
168770
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| Summary/Abstract |
For a long time, China's impressive growth performance has been driven by investment and high productivity gains. Based on a discussion of possible overcapacities and overinvestment in China, this paper investigates the sustainability of China's investment and export‐driven growth model. Since the turn of the millennium, buoyant capital inflows and low interest rates have been at the root of overinvestment and misallocation of capital, which necessitated export subsidies to clear markets. The overinvestment boom is argued to have ended around 2014. Since then, the overcapacities have weakened China's bargaining position in the US–Chinese trade conflict and have tempted Chinese authorities to postpone the restructuring of the Chinese economy by providing low‐interest credit. The gradual reemergence of quasi‐soft budget constraints is seen to undermine China's long‐term growth potential.
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| 3 |
ID:
168769
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper studies the ongoing diffusion of renminbi (RMB) trading across the globe, the first of such research of an international currency. It analyses the distribution in offshore RMB trading in 2013 and 2016 using comprehensive data from the Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange markets. In 2013, Asian centers favored by the policy of RMB internationalization had disproportionate shares in global RMB trading. Over the following three years, RMB trading seemed to converge to the spatial pattern of all currencies, with a half‐life of seven to eight years. The previously most traded emerging market currency, the Mexican peso, shows a similar pattern, although it is converging to the global norm more slowly. Three other emerging market currencies show a qualitatively similar evolution in the geography of their offshore trading. Overall, the RMB's internationalization is tracing an arc from the influence of administrative measures to the working of market forces.
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| 4 |
ID:
168772
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| Summary/Abstract |
The neoclassical growth model predicts that capital account liberalization could potentially enhance economic performance; however, there is no consistent empirical evidence to support this positive association. Using a novel dataset of Chinese capital account openness, this paper demonstrates a positive relationship between capital account liberalization and aggregate economic performance. The difference‐indifferences method is used to capture the causal effect of capital account liberalization on economic performance by taking advantage of variations in both external financial dependence and the progress of capital account openness. We investigate three channels that could strengthen this positive relationship using a firm‐level dataset. We find that capital account liberalization could: (i) alleviate the degree of resource misallocation, and this effect is more significant in industries relying heavily on external finance and in regions with more favorable business environments; (ii) enhance firms’ total factor productivity; and (iii) promote innovation. Our findings suggest that a strategy of gradual openness will leave some leeway not only for improvement in domestic markets but also to mitigate exposure to unfavorable global shocks.
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| 5 |
ID:
168771
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article identifies divergent views on the nature of the changing order and argues that collaborative rather than hegemonic leadership is necessary to sustain global peace, prosperity and justice. This collaborative leadership would increase the number of actors with effective voice. It calls the evolving order “multiplex” because of the overlapping yet divergent interests of the actors involved and “G‐Plus” signaling the importance of the increasing number and diversity of actors. It does so in the context of two of the many challenges facing this multiplex G‐Plus world: sustaining economic prosperity and coordinating global trade.
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| 6 |
ID:
168768
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.
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