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ID:
181808
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| Summary/Abstract |
Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet. Here, we derive sales share scenarios for zero emission trucks in Europe based on emissions reduction options and their associated costs. We find that manufacturers will require at least 4–22% of their newly sold heavy-duty vehicles to be zero emission in 2030, depending on their strategy to improve their diesel trucks. This implies a stock share of 2–11% for ZEV trucks in Europe in 2030. Yet, high sales shares for ZEVs and the super credits granted by the regulation allow manufacturers to meet their target with little CO2 reduction in the conventional fleet leading to low actual emission reduction.
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| 2 |
ID:
169893
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| Summary/Abstract |
Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles. CO2 emissions from transport have to be dramatically reduced to reach ambitious CO2 targets, but fuel economy standards below 75 gCO2/km (72.8 MPG) cannot be reached with combustion engine vehicles but require plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). However, the specific relationship between stringent fuel economy standards and PEV market share is unclear. Here, we analyse CO2 fleet targets in Europe where Regulation (EU) 2019/631 sets a target of 59.4 gCO2/km (90.9 MPG) in 2030. We use data of 3.2 million records with model-specific car sales in Europe from 2010 to 2016 to project future sales and CO2 emissions of all major vehicle manufacturers. We analyse the required PEV sales for these manufacturers to fulfill the CO2 targets and compare them to the manufacturers' announced sales targets. Our results demonstrate that regulation's target leads to PEV sales shares between 27 and 41% in 2030. The lower value is required if all manufacturers only sell BEV and the upper if only PHEV. In conclusion, ambitious CO2 fleet regulation leads to fast market diffusion of PEVs, but the current regulation is less ambitious than car maker targets in 2025.
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