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TERRORISM DETERMINANTS (2) answer(s).
 
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ID:   171045


Socioeconomic Determinants of Terrorism: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach / Sanso-Navarro, Marcos; Vera-Cabello, Maria   Journal Article
Sanso-Navarro, Marcos Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study of the determinants of terrorism at country level. This is done by adopting a Bayesian model averaging approach and accounting for the over-dispersed count data nature of terrorist attacks. Both a broad measure of terrorism and incidents per capita have been analyzed. Our results suggest that, among the set of regressors considered, those reflecting labor market conditions and economic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the generalized linear regression model applied. Evidence of a geographically heterogeneous relationship between terrorism and its determinants is also provided.
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2
ID:   189453


Terrorism Determinants, Model Uncertainty and Space in Colombia / Sanso-Navarro, Marcos; Sanz Gracia, Fernando; Vera-Cabello, María   Journal Article
Sanso-Navarro, Marcos Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract This paper studies the determinants of terrorism at the sub-national level in Colombia during 2001–2014. In order to establish robust relationships, a Bayesian model averaging framework has been implemented using departmental data. We find that the violence suffered by this country is linked to economic factors, especially labor market outcomes. The results obtained are not significantly altered by the use of relative measures of terror, the specification of alternative parameters and model priors or the presence of spatial dependence. The main conclusion drawn from our analysis is that an appropriate strategy to fight against terrorism in similar contexts is to increase its opportunity cost. This might be achieved through the promotion of inclusive socioeconomic development, primarily in rural areas.
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