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ID:
171363
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper evaluates the environmental and economic performance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a transition fuel to replace diesel in heavy goods vehicles (HGVs). A Well-to-Wheel (WTW) assessment based on real-world HGV drive cycles is performed to determine the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with LNG relative to diesel. The analysis is complemented with a probabilistic approach to determine the total cost of ownership (TCO) across a range of scenarios. The methodologies are validated via a case study of vehicles operating in the UK, using data provided by a large food retailer. The spark-ignited LNG vehicles under study were observed to be 18% less energy efficient than their diesel counterparts, leading to a 7% increase in WTW GHG emissions. However, a reduction of up to 13% is feasible if LNG vehicles reach parity efficiency with diesel. Refuelling at publicly available stations enabled a 7% TCO saving in the nominal case, while development of private infrastructure incurred net costs. The findings of this study highlight that GHG emission reductions from LNG HGVs will only be realised if there are vehicle efficiency improvements, while the financial case for operators is positive only if a publicly accessible refuelling network is available.
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| 2 |
ID:
186493
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper addresses the decarbonisation of the heavy-duty transport sector and develops a strategy towards net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) by 2040. By conducting a literature review and a case study on the vehicle fleet of a large UK food and consumer goods retailer, the feasibilities of four alternative vehicle technologies are evaluated from environmental, economic, and technical perspectives. Socio-political factors and commercial readiness are also examined to capture non-technical criteria that influences decision-makers. Strategic analysis frameworks such as PEST-SWOT models were developed for liquefied natural gas, biomethane, electricity and hydrogen to allow a holistic comparison and identify their long-term deployment potential. Technology innovation is needed to address range and payload limitations of electric trucks, whereas government and industry support are essential for a material deployment of hydrogen in the 2030s. Given the UK government's plan to phase out new diesel HGVs by 2040, fleet operators should commence new vehicle trials by 2025 and replace a considerable amount of their lighter diesel trucks with zero-emission vehicles by 2030, and the remaining heavier truck fleet by 2035.
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