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ID:
181808
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| Summary/Abstract |
Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet. Here, we derive sales share scenarios for zero emission trucks in Europe based on emissions reduction options and their associated costs. We find that manufacturers will require at least 4–22% of their newly sold heavy-duty vehicles to be zero emission in 2030, depending on their strategy to improve their diesel trucks. This implies a stock share of 2–11% for ZEV trucks in Europe in 2030. Yet, high sales shares for ZEVs and the super credits granted by the regulation allow manufacturers to meet their target with little CO2 reduction in the conventional fleet leading to low actual emission reduction.
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| 2 |
ID:
171408
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| Summary/Abstract |
Freight or goods-movement transportation accounts for 6% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 10% of emissions in our case study of Canada – mostly from heavy-duty trucks. Little research has explored the types of policies needed to achieve 2050 GHG mitigation goals in the land freight sector, i.e., 80% reductions from 2005 levels. We use a behaviourally-realistic technology-adoption model (CIMS-Freight) to simulate the GHG impacts of several climate policies, individually and in combinations, on the land freight sector (trucking and rail). Results indicate that current policies in Canada (including standards and carbon pricing) will not achieve GHG reduction targets for this sector – in fact, emissions continue to rise. Further, no individual policy has a high probability of achieving 2030 or 2050 GHG targets, including more stringent versions of the carbon tax, fuel efficiency standards, low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS), or a zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate for trucks. Finally, we identify several policy combinations that have a high probability of achieving 2050 goals, in particular a stringent ZEV mandate for trucks complemented by a stringent LCFS. While other effective policies and policy combinations are possible, Canada's present and proposed policies are not stringent enough to reach deep GHG targets.
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