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ID:
190394
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| Summary/Abstract |
The structural changes that the Chinese economy has been experiencing since its working-age population began to decline pose challenges for its further growth. First, as it loses its comparative advantage in labor-intensive activities, the share of manufacturing in its GDP has shrunk. Second, unproductive enterprises that are reluctant to exit the market tend to seek policy protection, which leads to the immobility of resource allocation. Third, the reallocation of the labor force from the highly productive manufacturing sector to the low-productivity service sector leads to the degradation of resource allocation. The inadequate exploitation of the potential of resource reallocation implies that the decline in manufacturing is premature. It is therefore important to combine market competition policy, industrial policy, and social protection policy to stabilize the development of manufacturing.
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| 2 |
ID:
173749
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's 2004 value‐added tax (VAT) pilot reform in the Northeast region, which changed the VAT from production type to consumption type, introduced a sizable tax credit for fixed investment in manufacturing industries, leading to more investment and higher productivity at firm level. This paper, however, uses difference‐in‐difference estimation and finds a negative structural effect; that is, the VAT pilot reform leads to a reduction in the export sophistication of Northeast cities relative to other cities in China, and the results hold for a battery of robustness checks. It is found that resources are reallocated towards less‐sophisticated industries. As the products with higher export sophistication are more skill and research and development (R&D) intensive, the shortfalls of skilled labor and R&D spending hinder the upgrading process. With a new round of revitalization plans in the Northeast, policymakers should be cautious with similar structural effects and focus on increasing skilled labor supply and R&D investment.
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