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| 1 |
ID:
191158
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| Summary/Abstract |
Do households sell assets in order to smooth consumption? The empirical evidence is mixed. Using household- and village-level data in the context of China's poverty alleviation policy, we analyze the relationship between climate shocks and household coping behaviors from the perspective of whether coping strategies to deal with weather shocks are sensitive to the contiguity of destitute areas. Our results indicate that, unlike households living in noncontiguous destitute areas, households struck by weather shocks in contiguous destitute areas tended not to reduce or liquidate assets. To overcome weather shocks, households in contiguous destitute areas instead reduced household consumption, such as food consumption and increased nonfarm working hours. Our findings point to the possibility that the implicit assumption of consumption smoothing coupled with a failure to incorporate explicitly the factor of contiguous regions has led to seemingly divergent findings in the literature regarding consumption smoothing.
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| 2 |
ID:
193742
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| Summary/Abstract |
Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impact of climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term.
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| 3 |
ID:
173894
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| Summary/Abstract |
Global climate change makes extreme precipitation events likely to become more frequent and intense in large parts of Africa. We study the effect of rainfall shocks on intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis shows the presence of spatial autocorrelation in rainfall shocks, which compromises the exogeneity of rainfall shocks in many applications. We correct for the autocorrelation using spatial polynomials. In particular, we use three different estimation strategies. We first use the complete cross-sectional sample to analyze whether recent droughts are correlated with respondents’ experience with intimate partner violence during the last year. We then use the nine countries with repeated surveys to construct a repeated cross-section analysis at the grid level. Finally, we use event history analysis on a time series constructed from the information provided by the abused women about when the violence first took place. We find no robust evidence that droughts increase intimate partner violence. Potential explanations are that the rainfall shocks do not affect spouses’ power, or that the slow onset of the droughts allows for a calmer response to the crisis. We contribute to the wider literature on climate and conflict as many of the mechanisms, economic and psychological, that link climate to violence apply to both intimate partner violence and organized violence.
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