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| 1 |
ID:
170235
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| Summary/Abstract |
There is a shortage of reliable information on the highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, production capabilities, and natural uranium reserves of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea). It is, however, possible to estimate DPRK’s nuclear material reserves using the data in the open literature and considering various scenarios. Based on our literature survey and analysis we are projecting DPRK’s natural uranium reserves and their production capabilities of weapons-grade HEU. We also report the uncertainties associated with DPRK’s uranium enrichment capabilities due to the differences in estimates provided in the literature. Our analysis shows that given the range of the estimates of DPRK’s natural uranium ore reserves, its nuclear weapons program is unlikely to be constrained by uranium resources, provided they have the required mining and milling capacities.
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| 2 |
ID:
170234
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| Summary/Abstract |
The detection of smuggled nuclear/radiological materials or weapons in commercial cargo remains a severe technical challenge due to the complexity of the global cargo network, sources of normally occurring radiation, and the broad nature of the threat. This article presents an analysis of the physical constraints on the nature and detectability of nuclear and radiological threats, using 122,500 radiography images from a containerized cargo stream. This analysis suggests that existing radiography systems, in conjunction with passive monitoring, may offer stronger detection capabilities than previously realized and presents data on the distribution of material in stream-of-commerce cargo to inform the development of future technologies.
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| 3 |
ID:
170236
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| Summary/Abstract |
The United Kingdom considered using the PRISM sodium-cooled fast reactor as a disposition option for its civilian plutonium from reprocessed MAGNOX and Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor spent fuel. This article assesses the plutonium disposition capabilities of the PRISM reactor for the U.K. stockpile. The article first describes how the stockpile was created. It then provides a simulation of reactor burn-up, the resultant isotopic compositions of PRISM spent fuel are simulated and the dose rates of that fuel. Dose rates greater than 1 Sv/h at 1 meter from the fuel were assumed to establish “proliferation resistance” and would constitute a radiation barrier to proliferators. Results suggest that the U.K. stockpile could be irradiated to that proliferation resistance target in 31.3 years, using two 840 MWth PRISM cores operating at a 30 MWd/kgHM burnup rate. By the time all the U.K. plutonium has been irradiated, however a fraction of the PRISM spent fuel will have decayed below the proliferation resistance target. Thus, even though in 2019 PRISM was removed from consideration by the U.K. government because it is not expected to be available for that use for another 20 years, this paper concludes that should PRISM become available earlier it would still be a poor choice for plutonium disposition.
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| 4 |
ID:
170230
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| Summary/Abstract |
The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, in which negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approach can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.
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| 5 |
ID:
170231
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| Summary/Abstract |
We present neutrino-based options for verifying that the nuclear reactors at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center are no longer operating or that they are operating in an agreed manner, precluding weapons production. Neutrino detectors may be a mutually agreeable complement to traditional verification protocols because they do not require access inside reactor buildings, could be installed collaboratively, and provide persistent and specific observations. At Yongbyon, neutrino detectors could passively verify reactor shutdowns or monitor power levels and plutonium contents, all from outside the reactor buildings. The monitoring options presented here build on recent successes in basic particle physics. Following a dedicated design study, these tools could be deployed in as little as one year at a reasonable cost. In North Korea, cooperative deployment of neutrino detectors could help redirect a limited number of scientists and engineers from military applications to peaceful technical work in an international community. Opportunities for scientific collaboration with South Korea are especially strong. We encourage policymakers to consider collaborative neutrino projects within a broader program of action toward stability and security on the Korean Peninsula.
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| 6 |
ID:
170233
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| Summary/Abstract |
Science & Global Security marks its 30th anniversary this year. Discussions leading to the journal began in the mid-1980s between Roald Sagdeev, Vitali Goldanski and Sergei Kapitza on the Soviet side and the two of us on the U.S. side. The objectives of the journal from the beginning were to publish high quality technical papers on arms control, international security, and global environmental issues; to open communication between western and Soviet scientists and arms control analysts; and above all, to develop a shared understanding of the technical basis for new policy initiatives to reduce the dangers from nuclear weapons. The journal was to be guided by a board of editors consisting of both western and Soviet scientists and arms control experts.
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| 7 |
ID:
170232
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| Summary/Abstract |
There is evidence that North Korea’s ballistic missile program benefited from support from the Soviet Union until its collapse and from Russia thereafter. Along with transfers of missile systems and rocket components, it appears that Russian engineers directly supported the program in North Korea. Analysis of missile launches, imagery, design solutions, and technology suggest that Pyongyang’s recent missile program may have continued to have external support despite a pause in the 2000s. This assistance may have enabled the progress in North Korea’s missile program leading to tests of an intercontinental range ballistic missile in 2017.
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