| Summary/Abstract |
E
verypolicy is a prediction.Tax
cuts will boost the economy.
Sanctions will slow Iran’s nuclearprogram.Travelbans will limit
the spread of COVID-19.These claims all
posit a causal relationship between
means and ends. Regardless of party,
ideology, or motive, no policymaker
wants his or her recommended course of
action to produce unanticipated consequences. This makes every policymaker
aforecaster. But forecasting is dicult,
particularly when it comes to geopolitics—a domain in which the rules of
thegame are poorly understood, information is invariably incomplete, and
expertise often confers surprisingly little
advantage in predicting future events.
These challenges present practical
problems for decision-makers in the
U.S.government.
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