| Summary/Abstract |
Maritime disputes feature prominently in global politics, but we lack full understanding about how they arise and why they are militarized. China’s maritime conflicts with neighboring states (for example, Senkaku/Diaoyu, Spratly Islands) have generated over a dozen militarized clashes at sea since 1991. Confrontations in the Kerch Strait between Russia and Ukraine in November 2018 created similar concerns about the escalation of the situation to interstate war. Maritime diplomatic clashes are frequent; the Issue Correlates of War Project identifies 270 dyadic diplomatic claims over maritime areas globally from 1900 to 2010, with close to a third of these disagreements becoming militarized. This paper explores why countries experience diplomatic disagreements over maritime zones, why some maritime claims are militarized, and how countries can peacefully resolve these conflicts. The project is situated theoretically in the issue approach to world politics. Empirical analyses show that maritime areas with more salient resources (oil, fish stocks, minerals, etc.) and previous militarization become more violent on average. States with greater naval capabilities make more claims to offshore maritime areas and use more coercive strategies unless they face countries with similar naval strength. Unlike territorial disputes, maritime conflicts are more likely to occur between democratic, developed states and are more successfully settled through multilateral institutions. The findings show the conditions under which maritime claims may become a flashpoint for broader clashes at sea between major powers.
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