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| 1 |
ID:
175929
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| Summary/Abstract |
As global investments continue in renewable energy technologies, investment costs have declined significantly. Meanwhile, many governments have shifted from pre-set renewable support schemes to auction schemes in order to introduce competition in price setting. Turkey has initiated Renewable Energy Resource Zone (RERZ) auctions to promote solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind technologies. We examine the first of these auctions, Solar PV RERZ, which has ambitious targets in terms of increasing solar PV capacity and enhancing domestic competence in solar technologies. Despite the auction being hailed as a success in terms of low prices, we utilize the Levelized Cost of Electricity generation (LCOE) analysis to demonstrate that the project is vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks and financial risks. Model results show that the capacity factor is the most prominent factor in costs, and 10% change in the capacity factor affects the LCOE about the same rate. Investment cost and interest rate are the other major factors affecting the LCOE. Based on these results, we make recommendations by discussing how Turkey can improve its auction design by incorporating some of the elements used by Brazil and South Africa.
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| 2 |
ID:
175894
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This paper analyzes the uncertainty associated with Reference Case, or baseline, projections of Canadian energy use and production. We use the Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Futures modeling system to explore the impacts of changing key assumptions. The choice of assumptions and magnitude of change are guided by the scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 project. We find important variations across all scenarios. In particular, we note that Canada's role as an energy producer is important for interpreting projection and scenario results. Overall, this analysis shows that it is important to test key assumptions in a typical Reference Case projection. However, this analysis also highlights many complexities in energy system modeling. It is also important to consider the potential interplay between key variables. This speaks to the importance of broader scenario analysis, where multiple assumptions are changed in an internally consistent way, as a useful complement to the focused scenario analysis found in this paper.
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| 3 |
ID:
175925
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| Summary/Abstract |
As the impacts from climate change are progressively being felt around the globe, there is an increasing urgency in the need for policymakers to find ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The rental housing sector offers one such clear opportunity to reduce CO2 emissions. However, there has been a lack of consensus regarding the policies that would best deliver a sustainable rental sector. Building on calls in the literature to examine policy mix solutions for this conundrum, a Policy Delphi methodology, using both qualitative and quantitative techniques, identified seven key policy areas. These were divided into carrot policies (tax incentives, rebates and grants); cusp policies, that are neither clearly carrot nor stick, but often have a leaning towards one or other (loans, energy arrangements, improved rental rights); and stick policies (minimum standards, mandatory disclosure). Minimum performance standards, rebates and tax incentives were identified as the most effective policy solutions by the expert panel. Findings suggest that any policy mix should include both carrot and stick policies. When integrated with the existing ‘enabling forces’ literature, a model emerges that highlights the policy pathways to an environmentally sustainable rental housing sector.
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ID:
175900
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper, we analyse community energy (CE) projects in urban settings. Building on insights from the literature on the geography of sustainability transitions, we examine how contextual conditions promote or hinder the development of CE. Furthermore, reflecting on calls for greater attention to agency in transitions, we investigated how actors engaged in urban CE projects exploit beneficial conditions or overcome obstacles related to some of the contextual conditions. Empirically, we draw on six case studies of CE projects from the Baltic Sea Region. To develop a thorough understanding of our cases we conducted 24 semi-structured interviews and analysed numerous secondary sources. Our results show that institutions as well as visions, e.g. plans for future energy generation, are important contextual features for urban CE projects. Local actors seek to overcome unfavourable contextual conditions for CE initiatives by building trust, appealing to their community's sense of identity, networking, and promoting demonstration projects. Based on the results, we recommend that local and national governments address the following four issues to strengthen the role of CE in the transformation of urban energy systems: 1) harmonising policies; 2) creating a culture for transitions; 3) developing visions for CE; and 4) promoting policy learning from experiments.
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| 5 |
ID:
175904
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| Summary/Abstract |
Access to reliable energy is recognised as a key driver of human and economic development. Despite this, today only 45% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa has access to electricity. Sustainable Development Goal number 7 calls for ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for everyone. Yet, at the current rate of progress, less than 60% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa will have access to electricity by 2030. In view of the urgent need to accelerate the rate at which electricity access is provided, we developed a detailed least-cost optimisation model to identify the incremental costs of providing access for the group of 12 countries in the Southern African Power Pool. Our analysis shows that achieving universal access by 2030 in the region, would lead to an incremental generation cost of between 5.2 and 11.4 US$2018 billion, depending on the consumption of newly connected households. This corresponds to an increase of system generation costs by 4–8% and the levelized incremental cost of supply to the customer of 108–116 US$2018 per megawatt hour. This is lower than what a typical household pays for poor alternatives to electricity, such as kerosene for lighting, implying that policy makers should accelerate access.
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| 6 |
ID:
175893
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper, we examine the electrification of the heating sector as a decarbonisation strategy, discuss its effectiveness, and preliminary assess its impact on the European power system. For this purpose, we perform a complete description of the EU heating sector compliant with official statistics and decompose the EU power demand in different uses to define and assess different levels of heat electrification. We find that heat electrification is an effective decarbonisation option, which can reduce the total energy related emissions by up to 17%, if paired with simultaneous expansion of low-carbon energy. Due to the relative sizes of heat and power demands, we find that most national power systems could cope with higher heat-electrification rates. Specifically, an additional heat pump capacity in the order of 1.1–1.6 TWth can be deployed based on the existing firm power capacity, which would correspond to a heat pump share of 29–45% in space heating. Based on their current power capacity, 12 Member States are prepared for even full electrification scenarios, whereas three Member States could get their power system stressed if 40–60% of all fossil-fuelled technologies are substituted. Flexible electric demand is identified as a key enabler of larger heat electrification shares.
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| 7 |
ID:
175897
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| Summary/Abstract |
The growing capacity of intermittent energy sources causes more frequent system imbalances as well as congestion. Demand flexibility is a valuable resource that can be used to resolve these. Unfortunately, flexibility can also contribute to congestion, particularly when used to balance the grid. Using flexibility to solve grid problems without creating new ones requires well-designed financial incentives. Congestion management mechanisms (CMMs) are a primary example of such incentives. The question is which of these is most effective in preventing congestion with minimal impact on trading on the imbalance market. This question is answered by comparing traditional CMMs such as grid tariffs to a local flexibility market on their impact on the load in the grid and the lost value of flexibility on the imbalance market. This analysis shows that energy tariffs are not suited for preventing congestion. Capacity tariffs are able to prevent congestion but they impose limitations on the consumer which significantly reduce the value of flexibility on the imbalance market. The flexibility market, an example of a local market, is effective if aggregators do not have a position day ahead or if the distribution system operator limits the buying of flexibility a day before delivery.
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| 8 |
ID:
175892
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| Summary/Abstract |
Rural residential space heating is strongly linked to policy considerations related to the clean energy supply and rural sustainable development. As there has been a hot debate on whether to promote district heating in South China, this paper aims to investigate household heating choices with a particular focus on rural residential sector, using the survey data from Sichuan Province. In order to investigate the main influencing factors of household decision-making behaviors, a multinomial logit (MNL) model with sample selection correction and an alternative-specific conditional logit (ASCL) model were used to respectively analyze the actual and stated choices. The estimation results show that energy-specific attributes such as safety level and smoky level have statistically significant effects on household stated preferences for heating systems. Households prefer to adopt lower-cost heating system with high quality energy sources. Among household-specific characteristics, income level, educational level of the decision-maker, household demographic structure, and household location are important determinants of heating fuel choices. These findings suggest that future energy policy should pay more attention to its combined effect on both cost and quality of heating system as well as its different regional effects. Besides, enhancing household socio-economic status should also be attached importance in policy design.
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| 9 |
ID:
175927
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| Summary/Abstract |
A key obstacle to nuclear energy as a decarbonization policy is the public perception of risks of radiation leaks from reactors. In particular, the “not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY)" syndrome suggests that individuals oppose nuclear reactors in their neighborhoods because they overestimate their risks. Arguably, such perceptions would be acute for those who have lived in the vicinity of a nuclear accident. We conducted a surveyembedded experiment in Japan (N = 2574) to assess how the NIMBY syndrome influences public support for restarting nuclear reactors when health, economic, and climate change benefits of nuclear energy are highlighted. We focus on Japan because the risks of nuclear energy became salient after the 2011 Fukushima accident. We test for two types of NIMBY effect, (1) respondents' proximity to any nuclear power plant and (2) respondents' place of residence in 2011 and its proximity to Fukushima. We do not find support for either the NIMBY syndrome or the Fukushima effect. On the contrary, we find support for a “reverse-NIMBY” among low-income residents, when they are treated with information on nuclear energy's low local air pollution (health). Our findings suggest that support for nuclear energy varies across population groups and depends on how its local benefits and costs are framed.
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| 10 |
ID:
175906
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| Summary/Abstract |
Environmental issues, especially air pollution, have attracted much attention with the development of economy in China. In order to provide a new idea for how to perfect the mechanism of regional joint prevention and control of air pollution, this paper empirically estimates the spatial spillover effect of industrial agglomeration on haze pollution. The results show that the haze pollution has a significant positive correlation with the industrial agglomeration levels in local and neighboring regions. Direct and indirect effects of the industrial agglomeration are all significantly positive, and the latter are much higher than the former. It indicates that the haze pollution is not only affected by the industrial agglomeration in the local region, but also neighboring regions. Furthermore, we find that the direct and indirect effects in central and western China exceed those in eastern China. In addition, the direct and indirect effects of industrial agglomeration in heavily polluting industry are higher compared with non-heavily polluting industry.
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| 11 |
ID:
175901
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| Summary/Abstract |
Electricity demand and its typical load pattern are usually affected by many endogenous and exogenous factors to which the generation system must accordingly respond through utility operators. Lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 imposed by many countries have led to sudden changes in socioeconomic habits which have had direct effects on the electricity systems. Therefore, a detailed analysis of how confinement measures have modified the electricity consumption in Spain, one of the countries most affected by this pandemic, has been performed in this work. Its electricity consumption has decreased by 13.49% from March 14 to April 30, compared to the average value of five previous years. Daily power demand profiles, especially morning and evening peaks, have been modified at homes, hospitals, and in the total power demand. These changes generate a greater uncertainty for the System Operator when making demand forecasts, but production deviations have increased by only 0.1%, thanks to the presence of a diversified generation mix, which has been modified during this period, increasing the proportion of renewable sources and decreasing CO2 emissions.
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| 12 |
ID:
175905
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| Summary/Abstract |
Rapid technological change is opening new possibilities for electrification of the transportation sector. This paper offers novel empirical guidance to policymakers considering investments in electric urban buses. We determine the environmental benefit of using electric buses rather than diesel or Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for urban transit. For diesel and CNG we calculate air pollution damages by combining emission rates with damage valuations from the AP3 integrated assessment model and the social cost of carbon. For electric buses we calculate air pollution damages by combining the damage valuations with estimates of the marginal increase in emissions from electricity usage. The environmental benefit is positive on average across all counties in the contiguous U.S. when comparing electric to either diesel or CNG. The environmental benefit of operating an electric bus fleet (rather than diesel) is about $65 million per year in Los Angeles and above $10 million per year in six other MSAs. Including the environmental benefit, we calculate the net present value (NPV) of bus investment. Relative to diesel, the NPV benefit of an electric bus is positive in about two thirds of urban counties. Relative to CNG, the NPV benefit is negative in all counties.
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| 13 |
ID:
175899
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| Summary/Abstract |
For the period 1975–2016, this paper examines the determinants of the residential demand for electricity in South Africa including disposable income, electricity prices, food prices as well as the impact of the 2007/08 load-shedding wave and the 2008 electricity price restructuring. Given the high income inequality levels in South Africa, this relationship was investigated at aggregated and disaggregated income levels. Based on an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the empirical results indicate long-run cointegration between residential electricity consumption, gross national disposable income, electricity prices and food prices. Disposable income elasticities have a positive sign for the aggregate and all income groups, indicating that as income increases, South African households consume more electricity (normal good). As expected, price elasticities are negative and significant – for both the aggregated and disaggregated models – indicating that electricity prices do influence electricity demand for all South African households. The paper also examines the complementarity or substitutability of food and electricity. At both the aggregated and disaggregated income levels, the results showed that food and electricity are substitute goods for all South African households. However, as expected, the magnitude of this relationship is marginally different for each income group.
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| 14 |
ID:
175928
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the 14 years from 2004 to 2018, the state of South Australia underwent a sustainability transition that saw its privately owned and operated electricity system change from 100% fossil fuel generation to a position where 50% was generated by wind and solar. However, this transition has not been without controversy. Most notably, in 2016 and again in 2017, the state was hit with major blackouts that many powerful individuals and organisations blamed on the renewables transition. The result of these blackouts and the substantial political fallout from them was the formulation and release of a new energy policy in 2017. Via a series of interviews with actors directly involved with the formulation of this new policy and an analysis of other sources attached to the state’s renewables transition, this article reflects upon the elements and motivations that made and continue to make the renewables transition in South Australia successful. In particular, the research shows that when renewables establish a critical mass of generation, they produce a path dependent trajectory that is difficult to alter. In conclusion, the experience of South Australia demonstrates a means by which renewables transitions can be expedited by public policy initiatives in a privatised market system.
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| 15 |
ID:
175907
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article investigates empirical evidence from the Canadian oil and gas sector regarding the key factors behind corporate decision-making in moving from “business as usual” to tackling climate change. The findings are based on survey data from a sample of 127 managers. Logit regression analysis revealed that pressure from government, customers, suppliers and competitors increased the likelihood that firms will adopt a low-carbon strategy. Compared to other stakeholders, investors and employees may not be as strongly committed to adopting a climate change strategy. Media and corporate sustainability reporting were not found to be important factors in influencing firms to adopt low-carbon strategies, while command-and-control policies and firms’ perceptions of the risk of resource scarcity were factors that seemed to have the most influence on corporate decision-making. Multinational oil and gas firms headquartered in Canada appeared to be more likely to adopt low-carbon strategies than foreign multinational oil and gas firms. This research contributes to a better understanding of the key factors that affect corporate decision-making concerning GHG emission-reduction policies. Regulatory action based on significant engagement with affected stakeholders would appear to be particularly important in creating a broad base of support and pressure for action on climate change.
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| 16 |
ID:
175911
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| Summary/Abstract |
With the increasing concern about energy sustainable policies, the words (willingness) and actions (behavior) of residents to support the renewable energy development have attracted lots of attention. However, most current studies focused on the willingness or behavior separately, ignoring the consistency between them. Given the wide gap between consumers' actual behavior and their willingness to support renewable energy found by a national energy survey in 2016, this paper aims to empirically explore the factors influencing the consistency between the willingness and behavior of Chinese residents through a bivariate-probit model. The empirical results indicate that socio-economic factors, socio-demographic factors and subjective factors have significant influences on residents’ consistency to support renewable energy development. Among them, subjective factors play the most important role. When the full sample is divided into a rural group and an urban group, it shows that income, education and energy supply satisfaction have more impacts on rural residents, while environmental concern and carbon emission knowledge affect urban residents by a larger magnitude. This paper provides important policy implications on how to guide residents willing to support renewable energy to take real actions in their life.
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| 17 |
ID:
175896
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| Summary/Abstract |
Global energy trade volumes have sharply increased over the past three decades, creating a more connected energy system. Increasing demand for energy, the emergence of unconventional fossil fuels, increasing environmental awareness, and technological progress in energy technologies have led to significant changes in national energy mixes and in global trade patterns. For many countries, energy security is the dominant concern in the design of energy trade strategies and policies. In this paper, we present a systematic analysis of the factors shaping the global energy trade network, considering several energy security indicators as well as broader economic considerations. We observe that, in line with energy security considerations, most countries have indeed increased the number of their trade connections resulting in a more densely connected global energy network. However, a substantial part of countries’ energy commodity imports often still comes only from a few incumbent suppliers. Due to this supplier concentration global energy security does not increase with the expansion of the energy markets. Increasing energy security will require fundamental changes in the organization of the energy market in terms of contracts and the flexibility of energy infrastructures.
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| 18 |
ID:
175932
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| Summary/Abstract |
President Barack Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) into law in 2009. It awarded massive temporary funding for the objective of reviving the national economy. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of some of the ARRA funds in terms of stimulating innovative activities specifically in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies. The research question was about whether federal ARRA expenditures issued through decentralized state and local intergovernmental grant programs and designed to spur new energy technologies effectively achieved their legislatively stated objectives. The analysis was based upon a first differenced regression model with instrumental variables using data from 2005 to 2015. The analytical evidence indicates that all else held equal, the ARRA funds successfully stimulated innovative activities in these technology fields. We conclude that a decentralized delivery system conducted through intergovernmental grants can effectively allocate federal expenditures for promoting innovative activity in energytechnology-related fields. We also suggest that short-term and temporary funds such as those supplied by the ARRA can provide a positive longerterm return vis-a-vis innovative activity in these fields.
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| 19 |
ID:
175935
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| Summary/Abstract |
China is the world's largest energy consumer; how can Chinese limited energy resources ensure a continuous development of its economy? This paper examines the impact of China's market integration and economic opening up on the Environmental Total Factor Energy Productivity (ETFEP) of 29 provinces in China for the period 1999–2017 and have the following findings: (1) China should strengthen its resource management in improving its ETFEP by providing indispensable impetus for ETFEP to turn from negative to positive growth and, meanwhile, making technological progress to bring about a two-wheel drive mode. (2) The key to improving Chinese ETFEP lies in inland China. The inland region should take over the industries transferred from coastal areas in a scientific manner, and avoid falling into the poverty accumulation trap of “being behind→introducing→lagging behind→introducing again→and falling behind again”. (3) Coastal areas should achieve the goal of increasing its ETFEP by speeding up its market integration, matching the higher economic opening up situation of the coastal areas. The key to improving the ETFEP of the inland areas is to focus on inter-regional market integration and the priority of this integration should be placed over the economic opening up, which seems more realistic at this stage.
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| 20 |
ID:
175910
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| Summary/Abstract |
Amid rapid changes to energy systems around the world, there has been ongoing debate regarding incumbent actors' ability to respond to disruptive forces. This paper investigates the corporate strategies of the UK's large vertically integrated energy companies (the ‘Big Six’) between 2008 and 2016. Four of these companies are part of international groups, with parent companies in Germany, France and Spain. By analysing data from publicly available documents and a small number of key informant interviews with current and former decision-makers within Big Six companies and other stakeholders, this paper assesses their responses to three potentially disruptive changes to the UK's electricity sector: decarbonisation, decentralisation and digitalisation. Each of the Big Six have taken significant steps towards decarbonisation, with some progressing faster than others. Most have remained committed to centralised generation investments, and a couple have made early moves towards digital retail products and services but with limited impact thus far. The authors conclude that the UK's incumbent electricity firms have shown that they are able to adapt given strong policy incentives. Policy-makers should continue to set ambitious targets for the electricity sector, while taking into account the role of international parent companies in driving a broader strategy.
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