| Summary/Abstract |
The choice of the most appropriate public policies to foster energy efficiency measures often is a difficult task due to the large number of intervening variables and agents and, also, high levels of uncertainties in estimating the corresponding energy savings. This paper presents a methodology that builds up scenarios to assess the impacts on energy consumption of introducing different levels of penetration of efficient electric induction motors, according to the set of policies and measures adopted in the scenarios. The proposed methodology comprises three modules. The first one selects strategic objectives, key variables and control players, determines their direct and cross-influence levels, based on the opinions of consulted experts, and sets up some scenarios combining them. The second module carries out electric motor sales forecasts based on electricity consumption forecasts for the industry. The third module estimates the energy saving forecasts associated to each scenario. The approach is applied to Brazil in the paper, indicating valuable policy options and their likelihood to local decision makers and other stakeholders.
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