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ID:
177325
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| Summary/Abstract |
We model the evolution of the Central Western Europe power system until 2040 with an increasing carbon price and strong growth of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) for four electricity market designs: the current energy-only market, a reformed energy-only market, both also with the addition of a capacity market. Each design is modelled for two decarbonisation pathways: one targeting net-zero emissions by 2040 for a 2 °C warming limit, and the other targeting −850 Mt CO₂ y‾ for a 1.5 °C warming limit. We compare these scenarios against the high-level objectives of delivering low-carbon electricity reliably to consumers at the lowest possible cost. Our results suggest that both 2 °C and 1.5 °C compliant systems could be achieved and deliver electricity reliably. In terms of cost, we find the 1.5 °C warming scenarios lead to system costs which are twice as high as the 2 °C scenarios due to the high cost of negative emission technologies – in particular direct air carbon capture (DAC). To make a 1.5 °C target more affordable, policymakers should investigate lower cost alternatives in other sectors, and increase research and development in DAC to reduce its cost.
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| 2 |
ID:
186485
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| Summary/Abstract |
UK power sector decarbonisation is an important step toward achieving the country’s 2050 net zero target. Two uncertainties are particularly relevant to this effort: future electricity demand and biomass availability, the latter due to the potential for negative emissions in the power sector from biomass energy with carbon capture and storage. Using the dynamic simulation model FTT:Power, this work explores the impacts of different power sector policy portfolios on emissions, electricity prices, and government spending under these uncertainties. It finds that deep decarbonisation of the UK power sector is possible, including substantial negative emissions, but that this will require ambitious and diversified policy. Carbon pricing is found to be the single most important decarbonisation policy instrument. Direct regulatory phase-out of unabated fossil fuel power generation is similarly crucial for power sector decarbonisation, and for building resilience to biomass availability uncertainty. That said, under all policy portfolios biomass availability plays a key role in enabling net negative emissions in the power sector. This suggests the importance of securing and improving UK biomass supply, and of decarbonisation outside the power sector to reduce the need for negative emissions to begin with.
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