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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
178165
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| Summary/Abstract |
Australia—China relations, and especially Chinese influence in Australia, have been the subject of heated debate in Australia since 2016. The central issue is, how to balance concerns over Chinese influence in Australia with the economic benefits of Chinese trade and investment? This study—arguably the first of its kind—answers this question using rigorous empirical modelling. First, it uses Google Trends search results to measure Chinese influence in Australia. Second, it connects Chinese influence, as reflected in Google Trends search results, to financial markets, including stock markets, government bond markets and foreign exchange markets. Weekly data for January 2016–December 2019 are entered into an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model. The study finds that the effects of concerns over Chinese influence relate mainly to increased volatility of stock market indices and government bond yields, and downward pressure on the share prices of individual firms that are heavily exposed to Chinese markets. However, the overall effects appear to be minor or insignificant. The implications of these results are that China’s economic coercion (if any) may not be effective, and Australia’s responses to Chinese influence and interference (if any) may generate insignificant costs. Finally, this study makes original and significant academic contributions to academia by providing a novel framework for exploring international relations.
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| 2 |
ID:
191951
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| Summary/Abstract |
The cross-strait relations between Taiwan and China are critical in the Asia Pacific and the world. This study focuses on economic relations and their implications. The main conclusions include: First, the economic gap in output is increasingly larger, thus favouring China. Based on a time series robust least squares model, this study finds that this economic strength will significantly reduce the number of Taiwan’s foreign allies. At the same time, this economic strength also brings military imbalance. Second, by employing the Granger causality tests to examine the causality relations between the stock markets of Taiwan and China, which reflect the economic integrations in areas such as the trade of goods and services and capital flow, this study finds that China is in a dominant position. At the same time, Taiwan is in a dominated position. However, except for tourism, the effects of China’s dominant position as leverage seem limited.
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| 3 |
ID:
191115
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| Summary/Abstract |
Australia–China relations began to sour in 2016, and the China threat narrative began to dominate since then. Unlike previous studies which either use a qualitative approach or cross-sectional dataset for empirical analysis, this study creatively creates high-frequency weekly and monthly time series datasets using the Google Trends search results during January 2016–February 2021. Based on a series of time series modellings, this study examines the roles of various actors, including China's own policies, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and Clive Hamilton, various factors, including Chinese purchase of Australian housing, Chinese investment in Australia, Chinese students in Australia and China's rise and various media outlets, including the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Australian Financial Review, Sydney Morning Herald, Daily Telegraph and Herald Sun, in contributing to Australia's China threat narrative. This study makes significant contributions to academia in methods by bringing a new quantitative approach to international relations studies and to policy-makers as well by quantifying the roles of various actors, factors and media outlets in Australia's China policy debate.
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