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| 1 |
ID:
196915
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| Summary/Abstract |
With the increasing share of renewable energy generation in China's electricity consumption and the dramatic fluctuation of coal prices in recent years, the discussion of the relationship between coal prices, economic growth and electricity consumption in China becomes more relevant. This paper collects monthly data from 2016 to 2023, uses industrial value added to represent economic growth, and explore the relationship between the three through a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which shows that: (1) The mutual impact effects among coal prices, economic growth, and electricity consumption vary across short-, medium- and long-term. This finding underscores the importance of considering different time horizons when evaluating the interactive effects of these variables. (2) Compared to 2017 and 2022, the lagged impact effects among the three have undergone certain changes, indicating that the understanding of their relationships should be contextualized within specific developmental phases. (3) The relationship between coal prices, economic growth, and different categories of electricity consumption exhibits heterogeneous characteristics, suggesting that recognition of these relationships should be based on specific types of power generation. This research enhances the understanding of the dynamic relationship between coal prices and the macroeconomy in China at the current stage.
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| 2 |
ID:
180115
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| Summary/Abstract |
While the retirement of fossil fuel capacity is an inevitable consequence of the energy transition to carbon neutrality, policymakers face challenges in setting the pace in order that the energy transition policies do not significantly damage the economy. This paper designs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the macroeconomic effects of coal capacity cut policy (CCP) shocks on the Chinese economy. The results show that: firstly, an energy policy shock can distort the transmission effect of coal supply and demand and other factors on coal prices. Secondly, the impact of different policy tools is significantly different on the macroeconomic system, in which the economic effect of advanced capacity replacement is the weakest. Thirdly, in the short term, no matter which policy tool is adopted, the CCP will inevitably lead to a reduction in social welfare levels. The study suggests that in the short term, the Chinese government can further release more replacement quotas of capacity with advanced production efficiency, and innovate other policy tools for coal industrial structural optimization and synergistic effects with environmental regulation. In addition, the results highlight the need for market mechanisms to further accelerate the energy transition over the long run.
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