| Summary/Abstract |
Despite the general view on the Taliban1
as a proxy actor, it has become
capable of pursuing independent domestic and foreign policies. Two basic
options for the Taliban’s role in regional affairs are possible in the future.
Under the Taliban’s rule Afghanistan may become either a scene of rivalry
between great and regional powers, or a neutral zone with a revived buffer
function it performed long before the 1970s. The Taliban’s independent
policies make the latter option quite feasible. However, if global and
regional actors with vested interest do not ensure necessary international
conditions, Afghanistan’s neutral role will not be possible. More broadly, the
entitlement to an independent foreign policy granted by great powers as
they abstain from imposing their influence over Afghanistan suggests a new
feature of the current polycentric world. Instead of trying to enhance their
costly influence on various regions, great powers may prefer to keep each
other from doing so, thus creating new niches for small and middle powers.
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