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| 1 |
ID:
183044
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| Summary/Abstract |
Electricity distribution prices have steeply increased in Finland since 2015. This research investigates the returns from the Finnish low-voltage electricity distribution business and compares them to returns from three European industry indices. The within-industry distribution of returns is also studied. The Finnish rate of return regulation model used is presented together with the level of allowed returns by the model, four changes to the model are proposed, and the effect of the four proposed changes on the returns allowed by the model are investigated.
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| 2 |
ID:
183036
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| Summary/Abstract |
Prior studies establish that electricity systems across the globe need to transition toward renewable energy and that renters have a low adoption of effective means to do so through access to household solar photovoltaics (PV). Yet, the economic, environmental, and social costs of low PV adoption by people who have trouble paying their electricity bills (hardship customers), who are more likely to be low-income tenants, remain understudied. Drawing on electricity use data from an Australian energy retailer we compare the performance of PV for hardship customers against โaverageโ households. Results illustrate that if society could achieve greater solar PV installation on hardship homes, annual grid-based electricity consumption could be reduced by 40%, lowering greenhouse gas emissions by 1.6 tCO2e per household annually and energy bills by $2908 per low-income household over 15 years. We illustrate how Australian policy could be re-oriented to encourage greater PV adoption on hardship properties, including through support for a new market structure that distributes the economic benefits of PV between renters and landlords.
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| 3 |
ID:
183061
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| Summary/Abstract |
Natural gas is one of the most important clean energy and has played crucial roles in curbing air pollution in developed world. To facilitate the use of natural gas and reduce air pollution by reaching a similar energy consumption structure to the developed world, Chinese government has vigorously constructed natural gas pipeline projects (NGPPs) during the past decades. This paper evaluates the impact of China's NGPPs on air pollution reduction, by using national data of pollutant emissions of over 800,000 firm-level observations from 1998 to 2010. The difference-in-differences approach shows that the introduction of pipeline natural gas reduces sulfur dioxide (SO2) discharge intensity in connected cities by about 22.8%. The magnitude of the reduced SO2 emissions is estimated to be at least 17.41 million metric tons, a size of 7.33% of the total industrial SO2 discharge from 1998 to 2010. We also find that a substitution effect channel that NGPPs facilitate firms to replace fuel coal with natural gas under tightening environmental regulations.
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| 4 |
ID:
183062
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| Summary/Abstract |
Natural gas is one of the most important clean energy and has played crucial roles in curbing air pollution in developed world. To facilitate the use of natural gas and reduce air pollution by reaching a similar energy consumption structure to the developed world, Chinese government has vigorously constructed natural gas pipeline projects (NGPPs) during the past decades. This paper evaluates the impact of China's NGPPs on air pollution reduction, by using national data of pollutant emissions of over 800,000 firm-level observations from 1998 to 2010. The difference-in-differences approach shows that the introduction of pipeline natural gas reduces sulfur dioxide (SO2) discharge intensity in connected cities by about 22.8%. The magnitude of the reduced SO2 emissions is estimated to be at least 17.41 million metric tons, a size of 7.33% of the total industrial SO2 discharge from 1998 to 2010. We also find that a substitution effect channel that NGPPs facilitate firms to replace fuel coal with natural gas under tightening environmental regulations.
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| 5 |
ID:
183040
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| Summary/Abstract |
The recent history of Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM) from 2012 to 2016 was characterised by coal plant closures, tightening domestic gas market and sharply rising electricity prices. The supply-side response that followed from 2016 to 2021 could only be described as an investment supercycle โ 16,000 MW of plant commitments comprising $26.5 billion across 135 (mostly) Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) projects. We examine causes and the effects of the supercycle. Underlying causes included disorderly plant exit and climate change policy discontinuity in prior periods. Adverse effects in the post-entry environment included connection lags, system strength-related VRE production constraints, ex-post remediation costs, system frequency careering outside normal operating bands, and rising system operator interventions. Market institutions were caught out and subsequently focused on market re-design and resource adequacy reforms. Yet analysis contained in this article reveals the NEM's most pressing problems relate to real-time power system security, not fundamental market design or resource adequacy issues. Resolution requires the establishment of โmissing marketsโ (i.e. fast frequency, additional operating reserves, ramping, system strength and inertia), and urgently, to restore power system resilience. Key insights for other jurisdictions are climate change policy continuity and policies which serve to defuse the risk of disorderly coal plant exit.
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| 6 |
ID:
183072
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| Summary/Abstract |
As online car-hailing services in China have matured and gained legitimacy as a traffic business activity supported by national policies, they have exceeded the expected speed of development. This paper estimates the extent to which online car-hailing services will affect China's energy consumption and carbon emissions under several scenarios. To weigh the substitution effect of online car hailing toward Chinaโs 2050 environmental goals, a Global Change Assessment Model 4.0-Sharing Economic (GCAM-SE) is used to analyze and associated government policy. Results indicate that by 2050 China's online car-hailing will achieve emission reductions of 8.36, 14.51, and 95.66 MTCO2 under, respectively, strict, moderate, and non-strict levels of the national Preliminary Rules on the Management of Online Car Hailing (PRMOCH). In 2015โ2033, strict PRMOCH can better reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by controlling the number of online car-hailing services, as compared to non-strict PRMOCH. After 2033, online car-hailing services will automatically realize the emission reduction function, whereas in this study's scenarios 1 and 2, the PRMOCH will hinder realizing car hailing's intended emission reduction function. These results strongly suggest the policy for online car hailing will be counterproductive unless policy makers consider the difference between the PRMOCH validity period and invalidity period.
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| 7 |
ID:
183070
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| Summary/Abstract |
In closing its economic gap with emerging markets, Cรดte dโIvoire will face a substantial increase in electricity demand over the next three decades. Cรดte dโIvoire has signed the Paris Agreement that aims to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources, including electricity, and absorption by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of the century. This This paper develops a forward-looking tool to explore electricity technology investment paths compatible with both rapidly increasing electricity demand and the Paris Agreement. We build a TIMES model for Cรดte dโIvoire and run scenarios with two sets of reasonable assumptions that represent two competing, and probable visions of the future costs of coal and photovoltaic technologies. The results show that a carbon tax of about US$21 in 2035 and US$82 in 2050 on electricity generation will ensure low-carbon electricity generation in line with the Paris Agreement. Although a low-carbon energy mix would create significantly more jobs, the two main challenges in achieving this energy mix will be to install as much as 24 GW of photovoltaic power by 2050 or to achieve a socially accepted carbon tax.
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| 8 |
ID:
183041
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper takes Sichuan Province (China) as an example to improve the design of energy use rights trading policy (ERTP) with the goal of reducing regional energy vulnerability. The following contributions are made to improve the ERTP: (1) The first step in designing the ERTP is to set the total energy consumption target, and this paper formulates the total energy consumption of Sichuan Province in 2025 with reference to China's 14th Five-Year Plan. (2) This paper adopts the historical egalitarianism, economic egalitarianism, efficiency allocation model and the Game-Equity Fixed Cost Allocation Model (Game-EFCAM) to allocate energy use quotas at the sectoral level. Therein, Game-EFCAM is an allocation model which considers both equity and efficiency. (3) In designing the trading mechanism, this paper exogenizes the price of energy use rights within the quotas and endogenizes (determined by the market) the price of energy use rights outside the quotas. Moreover, this paper adopts a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the effects of different allocation schemes and economic development levels on energy vulnerability. The results show that regional energy vulnerability is minimized under the allocation results of Game-EFCAM. This paper not only improves the ERTP, but also provides a reference for other countries in energy dilemmas.
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| 9 |
ID:
183053
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| Summary/Abstract |
We assess the distributional impact of introducing a carbon tax in a small open economy, using the case of Poland. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model with a search mechanism in the labour market, soft-linked to a microsimulation model based on household budget survey data. We evaluate the impact on various income groups and on inequality. We account for four key channels: the direct (energy) and indirect (other goods) price effects, behavioural adjustment of consumption, and changes in labour income. We consider three of ways to recycle the carbon tax revenue: lump-sum transfer, energy price subsidies, and labour tax reduction. We find that the distributional effects depend on the recycling of revenues. Using them to reduce labor taxation attenuates the negative effect of carbon tax on GDP and employment but increases inequality compared to a lump-sum transfer to households. This finding highlights the trade-off between efficiency and equity. Our results could be relevant for other countries producing fossil fuels, such as South Africa, Germany, or Australia.
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| 10 |
ID:
183078
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| Summary/Abstract |
In September 2020, the Chinese central government announced a new policy to develop hydrogen energy and fuel cell applications. It emphasized fuel cell commercial vehicles rather than passenger vehicles. Such an emphasis is drastically different from the hydrogen and fuel cell strategies of other leading economies. This study aims at providing insights into the justification behind it. It develops quantitative models to conduct economic assessments of the feasibility of hydrogen energy produced from renewable energy and subsequently applied in the road transport sector in China. A well-to-wheel model is developed to estimate the carbon emissions of the hydrogen supply chain as well as that of the fuel cell electric vehicles. In the meantime, a levelised cost of hydrogen model is adopted to analyze the cost of hydrogen as storage for renewable energy. These are followed by a total cost of ownership model applied to assess the cost of owning and driving fuel cell electric vehicle, fueled by the hydrogen produced from renewables, compared to alternative vehicle powertrains, especially those fossil fuel-based. On such a basis, the relation between energy policies and the competitiveness of hydrogen produced from renewable energy and the fuel cell electric vehicle is discussed.
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| 11 |
ID:
183065
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| Summary/Abstract |
Mitigation of CO2 emissions is a global public good that imposes different regional economic costs. We assess the distributional effects of cooperative versus non-cooperative CO2 markets to fulfil the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), considering different CO2 permit allocation rules in cooperative markets. We employ a global computable general equilibrium model based on the GTAP-9 database and the add-on GTAP-Power database. Our results show the resulting winners and losers under different policy scenarios with different permit allocation rules. We see that in 2030, we can obtain gains as high as $106 billion from global cooperation in CO2 markets. A cooperative CO2 permit market with equal per capita allowances results in considerable monetary transfers from high per capita emission regions to low per capita emission regions. In per capita terms, these transfers are comparable to the Official Development Assistance (ODA) transfers. We also disaggregate the mitigation costs into direct and indirect shares. For the energy-exporting regions, the largest cost component is unambiguously the indirect mitigation costs.
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| 12 |
ID:
183064
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| Summary/Abstract |
To regulate the rising environmental impact of flying, the EU integrated aviation into the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in 2012. This study gives an empirical ex-post evaluation on the effect of the EU ETS on aviation demand using a gravity model approach. The results of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimates suggest that the EU ETS has so far had no statistically significant effects on intra-EEA (European Economic Area) air passenger flows. This study additionally controls for the impact of the Austrian and German air transportation tax on aviation demand. The ticket tax brings about statistically significant and robust demand reductions on the affected country-pairs. But although the tax reduces demand, this policy may still not be the adequate measure as the aviation taxes that are in place do not relate to the amount of CO2 emitted by air travel. Generally, policy instruments are preferred that incentivize emission reductions, as is the case with kerosene taxes or emissions trading systems (ETS).
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| 13 |
ID:
183043
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| Summary/Abstract |
The rapid integration of renewable energy sources and demand-side participation has changed how electrical energy is being purchased, transmitted, distributed, or even consumed. It has opened new opportunities for the Indian power sector to redefine its existing operational and business models to cope with the unique challenges and follow an approach that maximizes social welfare across all energy supply chain segments. This journey will have significant impacts on the Distribution companies (DISCOMs). The anticipated segregation of wire and supply business would bring more operational efficiency in the distribution sector. The subsequent entry of retailers will handle the supply business of electricity. A new entity is likely to emerge as Distribution System Operator (DSO), providing network access, grid services and enabling consumer market participation. The emergence of DSO is decisive in achieving better socioeconomic and environmental benefits. The idea of DSO is still at the conceptual level in India. In this paper, an attempt has been made to present the DSO definition, highlight its need, enlist various DSO functions, and suggest possible DSO creation options. DSO's few competitive market models are examined from the Indian perspective, which will engage all stakeholders actively and ensure the reliable and efficient operation of the overall Indian power grid.
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| 14 |
ID:
183063
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study assesses the expansion of the Brazilian energy system across three GHG emissions pathways simulating the achievement of the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution. In the Reference scenario, the NDC is achieved through command-and-control policies. We then compare this pathway to an Emissions Pricing Scenario (EPS), which simulates a carbon pricing scheme. The Sensitive Fuels Exemption Scenario (SFE) is similar to the latter, but gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas are exempted from pricing, strengthening political buy-in to the mechanism.
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| 15 |
ID:
183051
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| Summary/Abstract |
Social costs derived by fuel poverty are often not considered in policy decision making, leading to the exclusion of vulnerable groups from subsidy and further degradation of old inefficient housing stock. Low-income housing renovation may result in unprofitable under conventional methods due to multiple factors such as the low price of energy of subsidised utility tariffs, the below-average energy consumption, and their inability to invest. This paper analyses policy to public housing retrofitting considering the social costs derived by fuel poverty, a situation of vulnerability driven by a combination of low income and poor living conditions regarding energy consumption and thermal comfort. Enhanced comfort conditions positively affect individuals' health and social life, translating into economic relief for the National Healthcare Service. The search to reduce fuel poverty challenges a paradigm shift in investment in public housing renovation. It could receive additional support from the monetisation of the health benefits derived by building retrofitting. The results of this paper offer local authorities the critical analysis and evaluation framework when it comes to an understanding the policy impact of building retrofit on energy consumption, thermal comfort and health, prioritise the renovations of the public housing stock and adequately allocate public funding.
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| 16 |
ID:
183037
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper describes the energy sector related to public lighting systems in Ecuador. It presents, in an orderly and succinct manner, the legal framework that governs this service and its model which includes the following aspects: its current structure, energy supply policies, competencies, tariff and subsidy specifications, service policies, planning, system modernization and related environmental aspects centering on the evolution and new law of the electricity sector. Nowadays, 5.56% of the energy generated in Ecuador is destined to the public lighting service. In 2019, 1382.14 GWh were destined to public lighting. For the next ten years, according to the Electricity Master Plan, an increase of 534,076 new points of light is foreseen. In the short term, there is no defined plan to replace the systems with sodium lights to LED technology lights that will allow not only to accomplish the state energy efficiency policies, but also to reduce the energy consumption. The legal framework and the exposed data allow the different stakeholders to make informed intervention decisions.
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| 17 |
ID:
183035
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this work, we estimate the replacement cost of traditional light sources by light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. From the Year 2021 to Year 2027, if all traditional light sources are replaced by LEDs, in these countries, the energy consumption due to LEDs in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh will be 6 TWh, 47 TWh, and 5 TWh. The estimated average energy consumption of other light sources in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh are 18 TWh, 153 TWh, and 15 TWh. Similarly, the estimated energy consumption cost of LEDs, during the stated period, in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh is USD 0.6 billion, USD 4 billion, and USD 0.3 billion, respectively. The estimated average energy consumption cost of traditional light sources is USD 2 billion, USD 13 billion, and USD 1 billion in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, respectively. The estimated average energy saving, by using LEDs, in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh is 12 TWh, 105 TWh, and 11 TWh respectively. By using LEDs instead of other traditional light sources, USD 1.2 billion, USD 9 billion, and USD 0.6 billion can be potentially saved in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, respectively.
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| 18 |
ID:
183042
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study analyzes the total cost of saving electricity (TCSE) of energy efficiency (EE) market pilot project granting incentives for the installation of 11 high-efficiency energy appliances in 51 business sites selected in 2019 in Korea. We calculate TCSE composed of participant and program costs in ex-ante perspectives as a whole, by each efficient measure, and by each business site. The weighted average of TCSE is calculated as 2.98 ยข/kWh, which is lower than the LCOE calculated based on the installation of additional power generation sources in Korea. Additionally, excluding 2 of the 11 target technologies that were rarely introduced, the TCSE showed less than 10 cents/kWh, and it was confirmed that most of the total energy savings of the program around 84,630 MWh were achieved with these inexpensive technologies. We believe that these findings have profound implications on Korea's energy efficiency programs and policy analysis.
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| 19 |
ID:
183049
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| Summary/Abstract |
Energy burden, the proportion of household income spent on energy costs, is driven by numerous social, economic, and material factors which also vary spatially. Efforts to identify high energy burden households have often omitted this spatial component, resulting in an incomplete picture of energy burden dynamics. The goal of this study is to examine the predictors of energy burden at the urban scale using spatial regression. A combination of ordinary least squares regression, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) were used to predict energy burden from a range of socioeconomic and physical predictors in Cincinnati, Ohio. The results indicate that socioeconomic variables, especially income-related variables, are the strongest predictors of energy burden, and that spatial models resulted in a better model fit than non-spatial models. The best fitting model showed that lower median household income, and higher proportions of households in poverty, non-white residents, gas-heated households, and two-family buildings were significant predictors of energy burden. These results highlight the need for more effective income-based targeting of energy assistance programs, and provide an example of how spatial analysis methods can be used to help cities develop data-driven policy to reduce energy burden.
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| 20 |
ID:
183038
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| Summary/Abstract |
While fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) fueled by hydrogen produced using low-carbon processes could considerably reduce carbon emissions from transportation, FCEVs are produced at low volume, are expensive to manufacture, and lack widespread refueling infrastructure. To inform advancement pathways for FCEVs, we conducted an expert elicitation on vehicle costs and performance at anticipated production volumes, governmental actions to advance FCEVs, anticipated sales of FCEVs equipped with an automated driving system (ADS), and anticipated infrastructure deployments. Between 2020 and 2035, experts assessed a three-fold decline in fuel cell system costs to $60/kW and over an order of magnitude increase in production volume to 225,000 systems/year. Levelized costs of driving were assesed at $0.25โ$0.90/mile and $0.17โ$0.65/mile in 2035 and 2050, respectively. FCEVs could constitute a considerable share of ADS-equipped vehicle sales depending on cost and performance trajectories of automated driving technology and electric vehicles. Experts identified regulatory and incentive-based policies as important governmental actions to advance FCEVs and recommended hydrogen, fuel cells, and technology deployment activities each receive at least 20% of government research and development funding. Medians of experts' U.S. refueling station deployment assessments were 500 and 2,000 stations cumulative in 2030 and 2040, respectively. The middle 50% of respondents anticipated 2030 cumulative FCEV deployments in China of 100,000โ1 million.
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