| Summary/Abstract |
Linking intelligence and policy is crucial for advancing national strategic interests. Especially important intelligence for policymakers includes key trends in national security, relevant data and probabilities of major military confrontations, such as a clash between the United States and China. It is also essential for intelligence agencies to articulate the degrees of confidence they have in their assessments. This requires them to ask themselves how reliable the available evidence is, what the range of opinion on the issue is, and what it would take for them to change their views. To better answer these questions, US intelligence agencies could consider more systematic approaches to crowdsourcing and testing their own findings.
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