| Summary/Abstract |
The article analyzes the data obtained in a survey that involved twenty
leading Russian experts specializing in international security, arms control,and strategic stability. The survey was conducted in December 2021. The
respondents were asked to name factors that, in their opinion, currently have
(2022) or will have a tangible impact on strategic stability in the foreseeable
future (until 2036) and to list them in the order of their significance. In
addition, they were asked whether and how these factors would be taken
into account in the future. Two time frames were chosen for analysis: up
until the year 2026 (when the “extended” START-3 Treaty will end) and up
until the year 2036 (when a possible nuclear arms control agreement that
may replace START-3 will expire). The experts were also asked to assess the
degree to which the proposed factors may affect strategic stability in 2022,
2026, and 2036.
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