| Summary/Abstract |
Russia’s war against Ukraine has suddenly made NATO membership for Finland and Sweden highly likely. It would end their long-standing postures of ‘armed neutrality’. Their accession would constitute a major shift in European security. Properly managed, it could produce a net benefit. Both nations would be security providers, with highly capable forces. They would make significant contributions to burden-sharing among the allies and enhance NATO’s ability to modernise its defence planning and capability development. Their membership would also bolster NATO deterrence by complicating Russian military planning in the geostrategically evolving Baltic Sea region. Dealing with Russia in that region, the Arctic and the High North would also become more central to NATO’s strategy and posture.
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