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| 1 |
ID:
185213
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| Summary/Abstract |
Bangladesh celebrated its 50th year in 2021, marking significant improvement in the lives of its citizens. However, the celebrations were muted by not just the ongoing pandemic but also increasing authoritarianism. The economy was hit hard by the pandemic, but a recovery appears to be underway. A resolution to the Rohingya refugee crisis remains elusive, and in the long run the country remains acutely vulnerable to climate change.
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| 2 |
ID:
185206
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2021, Cambodia confronted the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid a surge in case numbers and total deaths, the virus brought new and profound consequences for the Southeast Asian nation. A spate of decrees, laws, and provisions provided Hun Sen’s government ways to contain the outbreak, along with an opportunity to further stifle political dissent. The economic effects of the crisis were acutely felt in the crucial tourist industry and garment sector, both of which experienced severe contraction that will be long-lasting. Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia’s foreign affairs were dominated by its friendly relationship with China, poor reputation within the United States, and pending chairmanship of ASEAN.
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| 3 |
ID:
185197
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| Summary/Abstract |
The year 2021 saw unceasing power concentration in China and inside the ruling Communist Party. China persisted with a zero-COVID policy, but at considerable social and economic costs. The investigation of the origins of the pandemic triggered new sparring between China and Western countries. US–China relations continued to sour as the Biden administration kept on with most of the existing China policies and started building a new security network in the Indo-Pacific region. China tightened its control of Hong Kong’s political life, but its effort toward “complete reunification” faced strong resistance across the Taiwan Strait.
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| 4 |
ID:
185211
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| Summary/Abstract |
A positive start to 2021 ended abruptly when the Delta variant of COVID-19 swept over India, killing millions. Since peaking in May, the pandemic has abated, and the government has vaccinated a large share of the population. The Bharatiya Janata Party continues to dominate the country’s politics, having centralized power further despite a lackluster performance in state elections. The economy recovered vigorously from its COVID-induced recession of 2020, but it is unclear whether growth will return to the 8–9% annual rates witnessed in the 2000s. India is more bogged down in its neighborhood than before: it has been unable to retrieve the territory it lost to China last year, and the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban threatens an increase in terrorism in Kashmir. The country is at a crossroads, and much will depend on how the relatively unfettered senior leadership of the BJP responds to these challenges
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| 5 |
ID:
185204
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| Summary/Abstract |
A devastating wave of COVID-19 infections cast a long shadow over all political and economic developments in Indonesia in 2021. Many of the patterns and trends identified in this journal’s previous year-end analysis intensified in 2021, with a deepening of pandemic-induced crises, immense loss of life, and further erosion of democratic norms and institutions, including unprecedented intervention into a corruption watchdog and a major business association. The administration of president Joko Widodo has focused almost exclusively on economic development and business investment throughout the pandemic; but the spread of the Delta strain forced a shift in the government’s approach to lockdowns, prompting new concerns about rising poverty and inequality.
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| 6 |
ID:
185198
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| Summary/Abstract |
For Japan in 2021, COVID-19-related disruption was again the dominant storyline. Its impact transcended societal consequences to affect Japan’s economy, politics, and foreign affairs. It frustrated Japan’s economic recovery and, for the second time in as many years, contributed to a prime minister’s premature resignation. Yet the year also witnessed major positive developments, including the “2020” Tokyo Olympics/Paralympics; an (eventually) successful vaccine rollout; public health outcomes vastly better than those of any other G7 member; an expected return to economic growth; and a smooth national election. On October 31, new prime minister Kishida Fumio led the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition into Japan’s first general election since 2017. Despite losing a few seats, it retained a comfortable lower-house majority, ensuring that a subplot for Japan in 2021 was—again—relative continuity in national politics and foreign affairs.
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| 7 |
ID:
185209
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| Summary/Abstract |
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a weakening of the formal economy and a crisis of the informal economy in Laos. The population has responded with a partial return to subsistence farming, which almost the entire rural population had been engaged in anyway. The return to subsistence farming was accompanied by a revival of the subsistence ethic, which is compatible neither with Stalinist socialism nor with capitalism. In the current configuration, the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party is in a position to take advantage of this revival, since it seems to support a communitarian morality, anti-capitalism, and self-sufficiency, which the socialist rhetoric of recent years has been propagating. The socialist rhetoric as well as the leadership of the LPRP were reconfirmed by its national congress in January. Social, political, and economic forces seem to complement each other to a larger degree than in the first two decades of the century.
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| 8 |
ID:
185203
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| Summary/Abstract |
Malaysia remained firmly in the grip of both the COVID-19 pandemic and economic turmoil in 2021. Ongoing political instability led to an emergency proclamation that suspended Parliament for the first time since 1969, followed by an unprecedented public rebuke of political leaders by the Malaysian king, and the third new government in as many years. This returned the long-dominant UMNO to power. An unexpected political ceasefire promised extensive reforms, but their implementation was uncertain.
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| 9 |
ID:
185208
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| Summary/Abstract |
Parliament did not have a chance to convene under the newly elected National League for Democracy administration. Before the first parliamentary session was to take place in early February, the military detained the leaders of the incoming administration and took control of the executive. It justified its actions by saying elections in November 2020 were fraudulent and the Union Election Commission had refused to investigate possible irregularities in the vote. Although the military said new elections would be held within two years, its rule might not be temporary.
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| 10 |
ID:
185214
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| Summary/Abstract |
The COVID-19 pandemic hit Nepal harder in 2021 than in the previous year, resulting in thousands dead, millions of livelihoods lost, food access constricted, educations upended, and social and economic devastation. In the midst of this, political leaders were preoccupied with power politics, leaving the country ill-equipped to manage the COVID-19 crisis. Fragile democratic institutions and norms were undermined by the inability of leaders to prioritize governance. Environmental problems, an economic downturn, and continued human rights violations further exacerbated the country’s woes.
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| 11 |
ID:
185200
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| Summary/Abstract |
Continuing the trendline of 2020, North Korea’s key priorities in 2021 were to tighten its belt economically and control the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two goals were related. With its healthcare system no match for such a public health crisis, the government continued its utmost effort to prevent a COVID-19 disaster through the near-complete closure of its borders, severely hampering vital trade with China. As seen in the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of North Korea, however, chairman Kim Jong-un also prioritized maintaining an assertive stance toward the United States, even to the point of abjuring negotiations with Washington that might have unlocked vaccines or medical assistance. Instead, North Korea frequently criticized the US’s “hostile position” and carried out a variety of missile tests, which seemed more provocative and capable throughout the year. Pyongyang also restarted the Yongbyon nuclear facilities for producing fissile materials. This assertive and provocative behavior was emboldened by steadily closer ties with traditional allies, notably China and Russia. Meanwhile, North Korea largely showed a cold, dismissive attitude to its southern counterpart.
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| 12 |
ID:
185212
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| Summary/Abstract |
Pakistan began the year with an energized opposition that directly challenged the military establishment, but as the year progressed, the opposition alliance fell apart under the strain of internal divisions. The military establishment pushed back against the ruling PTI and regained control of the political system. Religious extremists were emboldened and posed a challenge to both civilian and military centers of power. The economy rebounded from the collapse of 2020, but Pakistan continues to face macro- and micro-economic challenges. The Delta variant took its toll on Pakistanis, but the government was able to make significant progress in its vaccination program by the end of 2021. Pakistan gained considerable geostrategic leverage due to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.
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| 13 |
ID:
185207
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| Summary/Abstract |
In his last year in office, populist Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte faced the deadly surge of the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic. His government continued to struggle with the health crisis despite implementing one of the most heavy-handed lockdowns in the world. In his final State of the Nation address, he trumpeted his administration’s “war on drugs” and ordered the military to hunt communist insurgents and “shoot them dead.” At the same time, he admitted that he has failed in his “war on corruption,” the second plank in his 2016 campaign platform. His admission foreshadowed the biggest corruption scandal of his administration. The Senate uncovered evidence of financial misuse, particularly for supplies from Pharmally Pharmaceutical, a business formed just months before securing billions of pesos in government supply contracts. The controversy has eroded Duterte’s popularity ratings, but he has retained high enough numbers to leverage political support in the upcoming 2022 presidential election and deflect impending International Criminal Court prosecution for his bloody drug war.
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| 14 |
ID:
185210
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| Summary/Abstract |
Singapore remained in crisis mode in 2021, a situation that persisted from 2020. While COVID-19 continued to devastate various foundations of Singapore, especially the economy and public confidence in the government, a political succession crisis threw the republic deeper into uncharted territory. These developments are likely to have long-term consequences, especially for the staying power of government in what is a one-dominant-party state.
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| 15 |
ID:
185199
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| Summary/Abstract |
The two biggest stories of 2021 in South Korea were a cutthroat presidential nomination and the nationwide outcry over soaring housing prices. Both the ruling and opposition parties had gone through a noisy and murky nomination process. In 2021, housing prices continued to rise, causing citizens’ anxiety and anger to reach their peak, and the president apologized for the failure of the real estate policy. Despite the maladministration, president Moon Jae-in, unlike previous presidents, did not become a lame duck. Meanwhile, the popularity of Hallyu, or the Korean Wave, continued with the success of the movie Minari, K-pop band BTS, and the Netflix drama series Squid Game.
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| 16 |
ID:
185215
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Rajapaksa government consolidated its position with new laws, special task forces, and public-sector appointments. With the opposition wiped out, Sri Lanka now has a unipolar political landscape. Two successive waves of COVID-19 infections caused a rising death toll and necessitated severe lockdowns. The resulting economic problems exposed structural weaknesses in Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic constellation, with depleting foreign exchange and an acute debt burden. These interlocking crises triggered new forms of protest and a new convergence of previously disparate societal opposition.
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| 17 |
ID:
185201
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| Summary/Abstract |
China heightened its military pressure on Taiwan, but president Tsai In-wen defiantly resisted Beijing’s coercion and overcame domestic criticism. With a cooperative public and international support, Taipei quelled an unexpected COVID-19 outbreak. The bullish economy continues to be fueled by global demand for Taiwan’s technology products as the Taipei–Washington relationship progresses advantageously.
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| 18 |
ID:
185205
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2021, COVID-19 spread like wildfire throughout Thailand, with the government being routinely accused of mismanagement and facing two censures in parliament as a result. The military-aligned government also faced continuing protests against its rule. As the year progressed, the protests became more violent and spread to the peripheral regions of the country. Combined with the economic impact of the pandemic on the tourist sector, cracks are beginning to appear in the multi-party coalition. Support from the armed forces may also be waning, and there have been rumors of another coup. Nevertheless, imports and exports increased throughout 2021, and the opening of the country to 63 low-risk countries in November promises to ease the pressure on the government. The Thai parliament also approved a measure to reform the electoral system back to the one used in the 1997 constitution, under which the main opposition party, Pheu Thai, performed so well. Another election seems imminent, but it remains to be seen whether the electorate responds more to the intimidation, increasing support for the government’s largest party, the military-aligned Palang Pracharat—or to the student demands for constitutional reform, increasing support for opposition parties.
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| 19 |
ID:
185196
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| Summary/Abstract |
The past year was a transition, with President Biden proclaiming “America is back,” signaling a change in the agenda and style of US foreign policy. Yet the Biden administration’s approach in the Indo-Pacific has been one of both continuity and change. “Strategic competition” remains the focus of US–China relations, with tensions increasing and few signs of improvement. Yet, it is imperative that this relationship be managed carefully in the years ahead to keep competition from turning into military conflict.
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| 20 |
ID:
185202
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| Summary/Abstract |
COVID-19 and the Party Congress dominated the headlines in Vietnam in 2021. This essay reviews the leadership changes after the Party Congress and the challenges the new leaders faced in confronting the Delta variant of COVID-19. It also considers other economic challenges that have simmered under the surface, such as its approach to securing infrastructure funding, particularly in the energy sector. It concludes by considering Vietnam’s international posture relating to the US and China.
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