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| 1 |
ID:
145942
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| Summary/Abstract |
One of the most important debates currently underway within NATO focuses on the extent to which the Alliance should have a forward presence of Allied combat forces in the exposed Baltic States. Limited-presence arrangements are likely to fall short of their deterrent purpose if they fail to account for Russia’s growing ability to threaten NATO’s operational access to the Baltics. Martin Zapfe and Michael Carl Haas argue that any NATO strategy of assured access would face significant hurdles and come at a price. Although it could considerably strengthen conventional deterrence, such a strategy would be liable to exacerbate the regional security dilemma and could lead to a lasting regionalisation of the Alliance.
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| 2 |
ID:
145935
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| Summary/Abstract |
If we are to understand the problem posed by the current debate over the UK’s relations with the European Union, we must start by understanding how our attitude towards our continental neighbours has been shaped by half a millennium of almost incessant hostility.
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| 3 |
ID:
145940
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Over recent months, the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has lost territory to the Syrian army, opposition forces in Syria, the reorganised Iraqi Security Forces and the Hashed Al-Sha’bi (Popular Mobilization Forces – PMF), as well as to Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Iraq. These losses have led to heightened speculation that an assault on the IS stronghold of Mosul may happen sooner rather than later. However, with such speculation comes the fear of ‘the day after’, and what could be expected to happen in Mosul – a traditional focal point of Arab and Iraqi nationalists – and a city that was the centre of Iraq’s military establishment throughout the twentieth century. Tallha Abdulrazaq and Gareth Stansfield investigate this ‘day after’ question, highlighting the potential problems that may emerge following IS’s departure from the city.
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| 4 |
ID:
145944
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The economic sanctions imposed by the West against Russia in 2014, following the latter’s aggression in Ukraine, were deliberately limited but nevertheless significant, their impact distinguishable from that of the fall in oil prices that occurred in late 2014. Edward Hunter Christie argues that these sanctions, in combination with credible threats of further sanctions, appear to have had an effect in limiting Russian aggression in Ukraine, even though they have not led to a reversal of facts on the ground. This article also explores the possibility that, in the absence of other coercive components to underpin diplomatic efforts, the earlier application of more robust economic sanctions might have had stronger effects on Russia’s behaviour.
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| 5 |
ID:
145936
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| Summary/Abstract |
The immediate cause of the First World War was the Kaiser’s violation of Belgian neutrality, as part of a planned assault against France. The direct cause of the Second World War was Hitler’s invasion of Poland, after a secret agreement with Stalin to carve up its territory. In both cases, German aggression was not deterred by the prospect of conflict with European states individually or in combination. In both cases, too, the late entry of the US as a belligerent made a decisive difference to the outcome.
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| 6 |
ID:
145943
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Japan–NATO co-operation has come a long way from the initial political contacts of the 1990s, with Japan’s contribution to reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan a core factor in the development of the partnership. Alessio Patalano, however, argues that it is the counter-piracy operation in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean which has been critical to the development of a more robust form of military interaction and has set the foundations for an enhanced partnership. He explains why maritime security can continue to play a central role in driving co-operation forward, notwithstanding the need for both actors to respond to the return of peer competition at sea.
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| 7 |
ID:
145941
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| Summary/Abstract |
Despite its extreme fragility, the ceasefire in place in Syria since February 2016 has afforded the opportunity to assess the options for a set of interim governance and transitional justice arrangements. These could establish the foundations for a transition following the conclusion of the Syrian civil war, regardless of its endpoint. Drawing on the specifics of the Syrian case and wider studies of interventions in, and transitions from, civil war, Scott Lucas, Christalla Yakinthou and Stefan Wolff consider the challenges of peace- and state-building, identifying both risks and mitigating actions. The article argues that risk mitigation is possible and should begin now. These efforts need to be supported by the international community in order to lay the foundations for a credible and sustainable post-civil war transition in Syria.
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| 8 |
ID:
145945
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The US third offset strategy (3OS) may transform the way in which Western powers generate future battle-winning capabilities and the technologies that enable and sustain them. In this article, John Louth and Trevor Taylor explore the nature of the 3OS, the strategic thinking that is driving it forward and the ambitions it seeks to satisfy. They discuss the key technologies within the strategy and explore the impact that their emergence will have on allies of the US. They conclude by discussing the opportunities and challenges presented to decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic.
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| 9 |
ID:
145939
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| Summary/Abstract |
‘Who only England know’ – the words are of course Rudyard Kipling’s from his poem ‘The English Flag’. Kipling was a self-made Tory, not a toff or a paternalist, unlike the men who applied to join the EU, beginning with the unsuccessful bid by Harold Macmillan back in 1961. Kipling was a proto-Thatcherite who hated the deference shown to the trade unions by the liberal intelligentsia, the very notion that there was any common ground between socialism and Toryism. Like Margaret Thatcher, he was a populist who believed that salvation would come from ‘the people in the third- class carriages’. Like her, he quitted the third-class carriages for the embodiment of freedom, the motor car, and never travelled by rail again.
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