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| 1 |
ID:
190041
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| Summary/Abstract |
The year 2022 began with a newly anointed leader-in-waiting in Hun Manet, the eldest son of prime minister Hun Sen. This formalized a process of hereditary succession underway for several years. Notwithstanding the prospect of change at the top, the authoritarian modus operandi of Cambodian politics continued in much the same way as in previous years, with government harassment of the opposition, a series of politically motivated court cases, and repression of civil society. Cambodia managed a relatively uneventful year as chair of ASEAN, but its international reputation was badly tarnished when its centrality to a surge in international criminal scamming operations and associated trafficking in persons shone a light on the corrupted nature of the country’s political economy. The economy began to recover from the effects of COVID-19, due in part to investment from China, but the consequences of the pandemic continued to be felt, particularly among poorer citizens.
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| 2 |
ID:
190028
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2022, president Xi Jinping’s prolonged one-man rule was formalized, further concentrating political authority in the Communist Party of China. Unemployment increased sharply because of the continued zero-COVID policy, and the economy declined significantly, generating pain and dissatisfaction and leading to anti-government protests and demonstrations in several cities. At the end of the year, the Party recognized the crisis and eased the preventive measures. Internationally, the United States maintained its technology blockade, hampering China’s economy.
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| 3 |
ID:
190030
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| Summary/Abstract |
India continued its recovery from COVID-19 in 2022. The Omicron strain was less lethal than previous waves and consequently had a smaller economic footprint. The economy began rebounding, with trade and foreign direct and portfolio investments recovering to pre-pandemic levels. India remained one of the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2022. However, it suffered very significant setbacks to its democracy, with increased attacks on civil and political liberties and human rights, and on its institutions, by BJP-led governments at the center and in the states. India effectively managed foreign policy challenges stemming from the Ukraine–Russia conflict, incursions into Indian territory by China, and the Islamophobic rhetoric of its own party leaders. Overall, 2022 was marked by a slew of BJP victories in six out of seven states and by the negative consequences of the BJP’s political strength for Indian democracy.
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| 4 |
ID:
190036
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| Summary/Abstract |
After another surge in cases, COVID-19 slowly receded from Indonesia’s foreground in 2022 as restrictions were lifted, schools and businesses reopened, and the economy rebounded. The Jokowi government posted several legislative victories while also testing the guardrails of democracy, for example with a public push to postpone the 2024 presidential elections. Corruption and misconduct grabbed global and national headlines and riveted the nation. In foreign policy, Indonesia chaired the G20 in a challenging year for the world economy and global politics.
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| 5 |
ID:
190029
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| Summary/Abstract |
Japan’s domestic politics in 2022, though immensely shocked by Abe’s assassination, continued as usual without major changes from 2021. The LDP–Komeito coalition prevails, and opposition coalitions failed to prevent it from dominating. Although the Japanese economy is recovering from COVID-19 with increasing consumption, the recovery rate is slower than expected. The Japanese economy suffered both internally and externally in 2022. While adhering to the principle of exclusive self-defense under the US–Japan Security Treaty, the Kishida government is trying to improve deterrence with a new security strategy focusing on strengthening its counterstrike capability.
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| 6 |
ID:
190038
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| Summary/Abstract |
Malaysia held a general election in 2022 that was expected to resolve ongoing political instability. Instead, it produced a hung parliament, reflecting a deeply divided electorate and growing support for Islamist politics. Following a royal intervention, Anwar Ibrahim’s progressive coalition formed a unity government with the long-dominant UMNO and East Malaysian parties; this unprecedented arrangement faces evolving social, political, and economic challenges that will test its stability and the very nature of Malaysian politics.
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| 7 |
ID:
190042
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| Summary/Abstract |
As in 2020, the biggest stories in Mongolia in 2021 and 2022 were elections, COVID-19, and how to cope with the contracting economy. At the end of the year, Mongolia was struggling to meet public health challenges and to recover from the economic downturn. Both the government that was elected in 2020 and the president who took office in 2021 have promised to improve corruption, which is endemic in Mongolia, but people have yet to see much change. Popular dissatisfaction led to a huge public protest in December 2022 that demanded the government ensure more transparency in the coal trade. Thirty years after a peaceful transition to democracy, Mongolia is facing its greatest challenge: how to maintain and develop a transparent democracy that truly cares about public opinion and people’s livelihoods.
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| 8 |
ID:
190033
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| Summary/Abstract |
North Korea’s 2022 was largely a continuation of the political/economic, military, and diplomatic dynamic from 2020–21, but with different accents. Given the path dependence of military/nuclear modernization, domestic political/economic structural constraints, and the geostrategic situation in East Asia, 2023 in North Korea is likely to continue these same trends. Two big questions loom. (1) How will North Korea open up from COVID border closures, which might make better economic performance possible? (2) How will North Korea manage inter-Korean relations, and is the Korean Peninsula headed for a situation in which the security dilemma of a long-term deterrence relationship between the US–South Korea alliance and North Korea spills over into kinetic conflict?
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| 9 |
ID:
190031
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| Summary/Abstract |
Even by the standards of Pakistan’s historical political instability, 2022 was extremely challenging. The year began with Pakistan on the cusp of sovereign default, with rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves and skyrocketing inflation. The economic situation was worsened by devastating floods during the monsoon season that directly impacted the lives of 33 million Pakistanis. An energized opposition called for a no-confidence vote against prime minister Imran Khan that in set in motion a chain of political crises that exposed the weakness of political parties, the meddling of the military in politics, and judicial activism. The year ended with Pakistan’s national security being threatened by religious extremist groups operating from Taliban-led Afghanistan.
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| 10 |
ID:
190039
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2022, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the late dictator, won a landslide victory in the presidential election after campaigning largely on nostalgia for the Philippines’ authoritarian past and perceived former greatness. The country was finally able to reopen from COVID-19 lockdowns after enduring a surge in the Omicron variant in the earlier months of the year. Global food and energy inflation, caused by excessive fiscal spending and monetary easing adopted during the pandemic, in addition to the aftershock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has led to an unprecedented food crisis in the Philippines that has been particularly difficult for the poor. In terms of foreign policy, Marcos Jr.’s arrival marked a return to more conventional diplomatic interactions with Washington at a time of increasing tension between the United States and China.
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| 11 |
ID:
190043
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| Summary/Abstract |
As in 2021, Singapore in 2022 remained largely in crisis mode despite resolving the keystone issue of political succession, with a prime-minister-in-waiting clearly in place. Still, COVID-19, together with the continued US–China economic and political conflicts, the negative fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the anticipation of a possible recession in 2023, continued to cast dark clouds over Singapore and its politico-economic future. These developments were somewhat counterbalanced by positive developments in regional diplomacy, which acted as possible shock absorbers of negative fallout from outside the region. Still, Singapore appears to be at a crossroads, with political changes at home being challenged by external developments, and with the shape of things to come in Singapore remaining largely unknown.
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| 12 |
ID:
190032
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| Summary/Abstract |
At the presidential and local levels, progressives were replaced by conservatives in 2022. But the National Assembly is still dominated by the opposition Democratic Party, so the government is more divided than ever. As a conservative government came into power in South Korea, North Korea fired the most missiles ever, and inter-Korean relations were very strained. The economy is in serious condition due to inflation, interest rate hikes, and slowing growth.
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| 13 |
ID:
190034
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| Summary/Abstract |
Taiwan had an eventful year in 2022. Cross-Strait tensions increased dramatically after Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. China’s belligerent actions in response have invited international condemnation and triggered more official engagements between Taiwan and the global community. Amid this tension, Taiwan continued its democratic governance by holding local elections in November. A change in COVID policy led to a surge in cases, but the initial high death rate had declined by the end of the year, thanks to high inoculation rates. In a global economic slowdown, Taiwan outperformed its neighboring countries. With Beijing’s alignment to Moscow after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the close US–Taiwan relationship further strengthened.
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| 14 |
ID:
190037
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| Summary/Abstract |
Thailand’s military-aligned government saw its popularity plummet in polls throughout 2022. Yet former head of the armed forces and current prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was resilient in the face of mass party defections, a falling-out with his fellow party leader and long-time friend Prawit Wongsuwon, a censure debate, and even a constitutional court case threatening to remove him from office. The mass street protests that were a constant feature of the previous three years evaporated as conservative forces used the controversial Section 112 Royal Defamation Law to silence the various movements’ leaders. Political attention was focused on the impending elections, which shook up the party system with rampant party mergers and switching. Meanwhile a return to the 2011 electoral rules fueled talk of another Pheu Thai landslide in the next elections. The economy began to improve with the relaxing of COVID rules and the return of tourism, throwing a lifeline to a rapidly sinking Prayut, who himself switched to a new political party before the year’s end.
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| 15 |
ID:
190040
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| Summary/Abstract |
The past year witnessed active movement in the Indo-Pacific region to form or consolidate partnerships around shared values or interests. While tensions with China and threats from North Korea mounted, the Biden administration’s strategy toward a free and open Indo-Pacific gained ground in many Asian states but evoked only lukewarm reactions in others. Ongoing and new challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine tested the US leadership. Washington will need wisdom and patience to maintain solidarity among its allies and partners and avoid a self-fulfilling prophecy of armed conflict in its relations with China.
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| 16 |
ID:
190035
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| Summary/Abstract |
Vietnam in 2022 was beset with numerous dramatic political developments and diplomatic uncertainties but also recorded significant economic achievements. Changes in the top echelons of power took place in an unprecedented manner due to the intensifying anticorruption campaign, exposing the malleability of elite Vietnamese governing institutions and shrinking the space for civil society organizations. Meanwhile, Vietnam was recognized for its outstanding recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic with remarkable economic performance. The country’s “bamboo diplomacy” was put under stress amid challenges caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US–China strategic rivalry. Navigating the turbulence and uncertainty of domestic and international affairs while maintaining the momentum of economic recovery will be the main challenge for Vietnam in 2023.
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