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| 1 |
ID:
190276
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| Summary/Abstract |
A growing number of commercial Earth observation satellite systems provide capabilities with significant application in nuclear verification, monitoring, and proliferation analysis. This article provides some relevant examples and a case study describing the importance of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution on detectability of ground targets and monitoring of activity. The article also provides an overview of 300 operational (as of September 2021) optical and radar systems with a ground resolution of 5 m or better, whose imagery is available to the public. By merging all satellites into one super-constellation, a simulation was performed to describe its potential coverage. The analysis suggests that with current commercial capabilities it would be possible to image newly discovered alleged ICBM fields in China every few hours with a ground resolution sufficient to detect new construction and missile uploading.
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| 2 |
ID:
193539
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| Summary/Abstract |
The increasing number of Earth observation satellites are introducing a revolution in overhead transparency and making ground activity more visible than ever before. In the near future, swarms of satellites will provide imagery which is persistent, high-resolution, delivered in real-time and widely accessible. This data will be instantly and autonomously analyzed by artificial intelligence, and insights provided to users. In the global security environment defined by rising great power competition, increased transparency could have a significant impact on nuclear stability by breaking the secrecy nuclear weapon states rely on. This could stimulate a dangerous nuclear arms race. If political conditions align and states make that choice, new technological capabilities could also help create an environment of trust and predictability and facilitate the next generation of arms control.
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