| Summary/Abstract |
GLOBAL political forecasting, given the difficulty of its empirical testing, is often on the periphery of those working in diplomacy. In light of the growing number of challenges facing foreign ministries, many international relations practitioners believe that it is more important to deal with current problems and that the task of thinking about the future is best left to those in academia, who have more time for intellectual constructs and abstractions.
Nevertheless, even amid the difficult conditions presently facing Russia, when it is even more difficult to plan out actions and reactions in advance, it seems relevant to pose the question: What if the current models and trends that we regard as generally correct and inevitable are not quite right?..
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