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| 1 |
ID:
191255
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| Summary/Abstract |
The majority of OECD governments pursue energy policies designed to meet CO2 reduction targets. Many of these plans have a gross approach where, for example, 1 TWh of coal generation may be substituted by 1 TWh of solar. This approach overlooks the importance of dispatch and diurnal, seasonal and weather-related cycles in, for example, solar supply. Switzerland has a detailed energy plan for the year 2050 a key element of which is to phase out existing 2.9GWe of nuclear power, about one-third of current generation, and to substitute this with solar PV that will increase by factor-20. We provide hourly reconstructions of Swiss electricity supply and demand for the months of January and July for the years 2017 and, scaling these reconstructions to 2050, we use them to make a preliminary assessment of viability of the 2050 plan. We find the Swiss plan is viable in July 2050 where surplus daytime solar may be shifted to fill night time deficit using storage. In January 2050, feeble solar supply leaves a supply deficit of 6 TWh for January alone, 69% of projected demand. We urge Swiss authorities, and other European countries, to review and overhaul existing energy policies to ensure the plans add up.
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| 2 |
ID:
191258
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| Summary/Abstract |
Various studies have explored the application of the inverted-U-shaped relationship in various industries. However, these studies have not determined whether building carbon emissions (BCEs) have inflection points and whether these points indicate a possible BCE owing to an increase in residents' income. Using threshold regression techniques, this study observed an distinct inverted-U-shaped relationship with two turning points between BCEs and household income. Furthermore, we found that income increases may result in a lock-in effect of high BCEs. We proposed the “income-waiting dilemma” concept that involves passively waiting for BCEs to decrease owing to an increase in residential income. We further examined the mechanism of the effect of residents' income on BCEs. Subsequently, we discussed channels to break the “income-waiting dilemma” from the perspectives of improvement in energy efficiency and increasing the clean energy power based on scenario analyses. The results show that an improvement in the energy efficiency of buildings and increased use of electric power generated by clean energy may accelerate the BCE peaks occurring approximately 10 years earlier. Finally, we put forward three reasonable and comprehensive suggestions to overcome the predicament and accelerate the inflection point of BCEs as residents’ income increases.
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| 3 |
ID:
191276
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper assesses the costs of policies to promote the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of aviation in the EU. Different policies for attaining a minimum sustainable aviation fuel share are assessed, taking into account sustainability requirements and the costs and potential of feedstock supply. The cost-effectiveness of these policies is compared to simpler CORSIA-type emission trading schemes, using a model that combines the demand functions for road, rail and maritime transport fuels, the supply functions of the related feedstocks as well as the environmental sustainability characteristics of the fuels. For aviation a distinction is made between fuel demand for intra-EU flights and for incoming and outbound EU flights. It is shown that policies that aim to achieve a minimum share of 3.5% or 5.25% sustainable aviation fuels by 2030 in the EU are 5–10 times more expensive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions than a simpler emission trading mechanism like CORSIA.
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| 4 |
ID:
191267
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| Summary/Abstract |
Both at last year's COP26 and at the recent COP27, a conflict erupted between Western and African governments over the reduction in development finance for fossil-fuel projects. The controversy points to the need for a better understanding of the role of politics and power in energy transitions in lower income African countries. Based on a literature review and data, this paper argues that concerns over energy security and a focus on developing domestic sources of energy are similar across countries, but also that differences in resource endowments decisively influence the potential for energy transitions. While countries that are rich in fossil fuels develop their power sectors using these forms of energy, other countries display a greater openness to developing sources of domestic renewable energy. Resource endowments in turn influence the finance that can be mobilized and the types of coalitions that can be forged between international development donors, international finance, governments and other domestic actors. This implies that, if a transition to more sustainable forms of energy is the goal, diversified and context-specific approaches and a willingness to work across energy sources and technologies are required.
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| 5 |
ID:
191271
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| Summary/Abstract |
The article examines the implications held by the EU's response to the COVID-19 pandemic for the green transition as set by the European Green Deal. It distinguishes changes in: (a) the use of policy instruments; (b) governance principles; and (c) the prioritising of policy goals as expressed via the conceptual framework of orders of change. The article assesses the extent of these changes as well as the patterns and regional variations among EU Member States, together with the Commission's role in pushing for preferential energy policy choices and encouraging the Member States' ambitions. The analysis shows the EU Energy Union governance framework was promoting the EU's climate targets' full integration into the EU's energy transition policy instruments (first order of change) even before the European Green Deal. Still, the EU's response to the COVID-19 crisis created strong financial and policy leverage to accelerate the green transition and gave an opportunity to close the gap between less ambitious and more ambitious EU countries. Many countries traditionally reliant on EU funds seized this opportunity, demonstrating the role of changed governance principles (the second order of change). However, the crisis has had an evolutionary impact, not a revolutionary one. While coherence between the energy and climate goals remains high, the EU's energy transition is falling short in fully integrating biodiversity (which would constitute a full paradigmatic, third-order change), despite this being an essential component of the EU's green transition.
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| 6 |
ID:
191256
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| Summary/Abstract |
Brazil has a long-running experience with auctions as an instrument to procure electricity both from renewable and non-renewable sources. We build a database containing project-level information from auction rounds held in Brazil during the 2005–2017 period and employ multiple regression analyses to investigate the integrated effect of auction design elements, individual bids and project features on construction delays. We find that the schedule performance of wind power projects has been strongly improved with the introduction of a preliminary transmission capacity phase in auctions and when the risk of delays in the extension of the transmission grid was transferred to project developers. Projects contracted in auctions with longer lead times took more time to be completed but faced lower risk of project delays and penalties. Large scale plants were more prone to delays, while no significant difference was found between projects awarded in technology-specific or multi-technology auctions. Lower individual bids were not associated with longer delays, suggesting that apparently the Brazilian hybrid auction system was able to minimize the winner's curse. Our results add empirical evidence to the literature and may provide policy makers with new insights on how to design auctions to promote the expansion of renewable electricity supply.
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| 7 |
ID:
191264
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study uses the list of ETS pilot firms and China's Administrative Registration Database to build the conglomerate of pilot firms and then uses China's National Tax Survey Data from 2009 to 2016 to analyze whether ETS leads to carbon leakage in conglomerates. The results show that ETS promotes carbon transfer from pilot firms to their production-connected firms, carbon emissions and emission intensity of production-connected firms have been significantly improved. After controlling cofounding policies, conducting placebo test and other robustness analysis, the results are still valid. The ways of carbon leakage include output, investment, labor, and energy consumption. Investment transfer occurs at the policy issue stage, and pilot firms tend to transfer production activities with higher energy intensity. Heterogeneity analyses find that the carbon leakage caused by ETS is transferred to regions with low environmental regulations and low labor costs. In further analysis, we verify no negative carbon leakage and compare the carbon emission reduction of EST to pilot firms with the carbon leakage of EST to production-connected firms, though ETS can reduce carbon emissions, its effect is far overestimated.
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| 8 |
ID:
191277
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| Summary/Abstract |
Human capital is at the heart of new theories of growth through the intrinsic role of education. Economic growth, also called income effect or scale effect, is a crucial mechanism for education’s influence on energy. In line with Romer, maintaining increasing returns to scale is the result of a dynamic of growth on energy. Thus, in view of the urgency of the transition to renewable energies in Sub-Saharan Africa, this study examines the place of income in energy substitution. Controlling the dynamic nature of renewable energy, and the endogeneity both between the regressors and the threshold variable, the new generation of Seo and Shin's dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) is performed. Including the quality of institutions, financial inclusion and industrialisation, the first-difference GMM approach is applied on a sample of 33 countries over 2005-2022. The findings show that the initial level of renewables affects the subsequent level of renewables consumption. Moreover, the transition from non-renewables to renewables is efficient when income stabilizes at a rate of 6.87%, human capital being involved in the process. It emerges that the contribution of growth to renewables follows the law of diminishing marginal returns with a stronger effect in Low-income than Middle-income countries.
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| 9 |
ID:
191269
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| Summary/Abstract |
Geopolitical conflicts and military actions pushed gasoline prices in China into the highest from March to April 2022 for the first time. We aim to quantitatively understand how the rising gasoline and vehicle prices affect consumers' vehicle purchase intention with different demographic characteristics simultaneously. The study applies Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Panel Data Mixed Logit model to analyze the data from the uniform experimental design. We subdivide the respondents into three groups: fuel vehicle owners, new energy vehicle owners, and car-free individuals. The findings show that if the maximum increase price of pure energy vehicles does not exceed 27,000 CNY, fuel vehicle owners will still be inclined to purchase pure energy vehicles, accompanied by China's 95 gasoline rising from 8.44 on February 18th to 9.41 CNY per liter on April 1st, 2022. However, the increasing prices are 25,000 and 22,000 CNY, which will offset the impact of rising gasoline prices on new energy vehicle owners and car-free individuals. The results have implications for introducing fuel tax to cope with adverse changes in consumers' vehicle purchase intention. The study provides theoretical support for analyzing consumers' travel behavior and vehicle purchase intention when gasoline prices have huge fluctuations in the future.
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| 10 |
ID:
191263
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| Summary/Abstract |
The need to accelerate the decarbonisation of the energy system has led to renewed interest in energy communities. Such communities are now identified by institutions as new instruments that can contribute to four main policy objectives: i) increase renewable energy capacity, ii) mobilize private capital, iii) provide flexibility for the electricity system, and iv) empower consumers. Within the frame of the historically centralised French energy system, we present five energy community business models (ECBMs) and explore the extent to which they contribute to the four aforementioned policy objectives. Our analysis shows that, while no ECBM has yet enhanced the flexibility of the grid, each ECBM contributes differently to realising three other policy objectives. We also show that the diffusion of ECBMs remains limited as a result of legal, organisational and financial barriers. We propose three recommendations that could help ECBM diffuse – protect economic viability, support intermediaries that facilitate the adoption of ECBMs, and nurture local governments as key enablers. Our outcomes are intended to guide policymakers by providing insights into which types of energy communities could contribute most significantly to the various policy objectives and provide recommendations to include them in their energy policy roadmaps more effectively.
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| 11 |
ID:
191253
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| Summary/Abstract |
Owing to the recent ban on the sales of new petrol and diesel cars in the United Kingdom (UK) by 2030, combined with the UK’s commitment to net-zero emission of greenhouse gases by 2050, a projected increase in the growth rate of electric vehicles (EVs) is inevitable. In recent years, there has been an increase in the adoption of EVs, but not at a rate sufficient to meet net-zero targets. Although benefits do exist for current EV owners, barriers such as the availability of charging infrastructure, total cost of ownership, battery costs, amongst others still present a challenge for the required adoption rate. In this work, we therefore aim to address some of these barriers, specifically the total cost of ownership and battery costs, by exploring the value a range of EVs on the market give to domestic end-users with different usage classes. Using a techno-economic-environmental mixed integer linear optimisation model which considers local energy demands, retail electricity tariffs, local renewable energy generation and battery degradation, potential benefits for EVs adopters are analysed from a cost or Carbon dioxide (CO2) minimisation objective. This model adopted considered a range of vehicle types – EVs and non-EVs – and properties, installed PV sizes, and user travel behaviour classes, and results showed that although EVs have a relatively higher purchase costs, total cost values are comparable, in some cases cheaper, when compared with conventional non-EVs. EV users further gain from environmental benefits through a reduction in the CO2 emitted irrespective of the user’s desired goal. A dominance analysis was also carried out to determine the order of importance of key input variables to the optimisation model in predicting costs and CO2 emission quantities. The results obtained are helpful to end-users in prioritising EV features during purchase based on personal goals of cost or carbon emissions reduction.
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| 12 |
ID:
191278
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| Summary/Abstract |
Carbon-emission reduction has become a consensus among the international community. In this study, we consider prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2017 as the object, and use a bidirectional fixed-effects model, instrumental variables, and differential difference methods to examine the impact of banking competition on carbon emissions and the role of government intervention in China. The results show that intensifying banking competition will eventually increase Chinese cities’ carbon-emission levels. Increasing banking competition can not only promote investment into fixed assets, which will increase carbon emissions, but also facilitate technological innovation to reduce carbon emissions. Government intervention in the market is an important reason for this phenomenon, and will distort bank-credit behavior and amplify the effect of banking competition in promoting carbon emissions. The findings of this study enrich relevant theories and empirical evidence, as well as provide new perspectives and policy suggestions for emission-reduction practices in China and other emerging economies.
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| 13 |
ID:
191274
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| Summary/Abstract |
Under the background of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”, the important role of Carbon Trading Policy (CTP) played in China's micro-level low-carbon economy cannot be ignored. However, discussions on the CTP's impacts on China's county-level low-carbon economic quality are insufficient due to limited data availability. Hence, this paper estimated the quality of China's county-level quality of low-carbon economy based on satellite data during 2006–2018. In particular, the quality of low-carbon economy was evaluated by the ratio of low-carbon GDP to real GDP, which considers forest carbon sinks, CO2 emissions and real gross domestic product revised by the nighttime light data. Subsequently, this study examined how CTP affected China's county-level low-carbon economy using difference-in-difference-in difference (DDD) method. The results show that (1) CTP significantly improved the quality of low-carbon economy in county-level regions with high proportion of high-emissions energy consumption or secondary industry's output; (2) mechanism analysis shows that administrative intervention currently promoted the quality of low-carbon economy, while the market mechanism had lagged and positive effects; and (3) the ratio of forest land cover to total land cover and technological progress were also significant channels for CTP to improve the quality of low-carbon economy.
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| 14 |
ID:
191266
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| Summary/Abstract |
Energy poverty is a new growing dimension of inequality in both developed and developing economies. Here, we develop an empirical model to examine the linkage between fuel poverty, income, and high housing costs in developing countries. Our analysis focuses on Egypt, a country that has undergone rapid development and significant energy reforms in recent years. Employing a probit and ordered multinomial framework to data from the Egyptian HIECS Survey, a nationally representative sample of both households and dwellings, we estimate the fuel, income, and housing cost-induced poverty extent and their key determinants. Our results show that households with low income, high energy, and high housing expenses represent approximately 16.4% of the total population, and 7.44% have low income, high energy, and low housing expenses. Our findings on critical factors driving LIHC poverty types (e.g., house type and family size) have some important policy implications for understanding the fuel poverty phenomenon and inequality reduction in Egypt, not only for the LIHC definition but also for any indicator of (fuel) poverty involving the posthousing (energy cost) concept.
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| 15 |
ID:
191259
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| Summary/Abstract |
Whereas the environmental benefits of transitioning away from fossil fuels are becoming indisputable, the implications for government revenues, employment, balance of trade, and employment appear less clear. Using an accounting-like framework, we analyze the potential near to medium-term implications of electric vehicles displacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Total cost of ownership (TCO), imports, government revenues, employment and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are each lower with EVs under different market and policy scenarios considered. An exception is a steep fall in oil prices (say by 50% from current levels), which increases net energy imports when battery cells are imported. Targeting high usage vehicles for EV adoption amplifies reduction in TCO, GHG emissions and imports but also leads to greater reduction in tax revenues. Furthermore, foregone tax revenues from avoided fossil fuel consumption is several times greater than the subsidies to EVs in the form of preferential tax rates. On a per vehicle basis, each fossil fuel vehicle generates over six-fold greater taxes over its life relative to an EV. Whereas economic growth and public policy can mitigate adverse impacts on government revenues and employment, simultaneously reducing total emissions as well will, if history is a guide, be more challenging.
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| 16 |
ID:
191265
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| Summary/Abstract |
The United Kingdom (UK) is home to one of the most ambitious climate policy regimes in the world, centred around the 2008 Climate Change Act (CCA), the first strategic climate legislation of its kind. Building on prior studies of the CCA while highlighting Germany as a counterfactual case study, we demonstrate the significant positive role that strategic framework legislation can play in improving climate policy integration and coherence. We further show that important new institutions can be established under the right historical conditions. Specifically, we argue that the political weakening of the UK coal sector was a necessary precursor to the adoption of strong climate policy and the emergence of a structural consensus towards accelerating climate ambition, as compared with Germany where consolidation of the coal regime has been a major factor in the country's failure to meet its emissions targets. We show how business associations and labour groups in the UK were a key supportive coalition for early climate action, while in Germany industry and organized labour have been key actors obstructing and delaying the passage of pro-climate reforms. Our study raises questions about the prospects for energy transitions that are both just and rapid, particularly by discussing the trade-offs between cost-effectiveness, speed, and distributional concerns.
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| 17 |
ID:
191273
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| Summary/Abstract |
The decarbonization of the European electricity system by 2050 will involve replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon energies, in particular variable renewable energies, coupled with the development of the transmission network to ensure their integration at European scale. As these production modes have a lower energy density, their development will imply an increase in the amount of land dedicated to electricity production. This study investigates the links between an optimal decarbonization of the electricity system, land requirements, and the development strategy of interconnections. We study these interactions using eTIMES-EU, an energy system optimization model, by endogenously taking into account a land variable and testing two interconnection development plans. Our results show that it is possible to limit the land use of the network to its 2020 value for roughly a one percent higher total discounted cost, and that the development of interconnections changes the technologies to be installed on a European scale, but that it requires efficient and ambitious planning. Moreover, our results highlight disparities across countries in terms of space and investment that may constitute barriers to implementing this type of centralized development policy.
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| 18 |
ID:
191257
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| Summary/Abstract |
U.S. electricity markets adopt a two-settlement structure with day-ahead and real-time markets. Wind power integration poses a challenge for this market structure because day-ahead wind production forecasts are uncertain and significant rescheduling costs may occur in real time, increasing the need for out-of-market uplift payments. We investigate whether a multi-settlement structure with four intraday stages taking place 18 to 3 h before electricity generation reduces uplift payments and system costs, relative to a two-settlement structure. We develop unit commitment and dispatch models that account for intertemporal constraints and solve them on a 36-node test system using historical wind forecasts provided by a Regional Transmission Organization, as well as synthetic wind forecasts reproducing the observed correlation in the historical data. Combining historical and simulated forecasts allows us to account for wind uncertainty and draw more robust conclusions about the relative merits of each market structure. Finally, we compare the performance of market designs under varying levels of wind penetration. Under any level of wind penetration, the proposed multi-settlement market design is more likely to yield higher uplift than the two-settlement market design. Wind forecast accuracy and structural differences between the U.S. and European electricity markets are key drivers of our results.
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| 19 |
ID:
191279
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| Summary/Abstract |
Decarbonizing urban energy consumption is critical for addressing climate change, yet renewable power installations in cities are rare due to limited space and economic unattractiveness. Community solar, where multiple electricity users share the electricity generated by their rooftop PV systems, could help overcome these barriers and accelerate PV adoption in cities. Using an agent-based model, we simulated the decision-making of nearly 5000 building owners in a city district in Zurich, Switzerland, and assessed three locally relevant policy scenarios: no community solar, community solar with adjacent buildings, and community solar with buildings within a 100-meter radius. The results show that allowing community solar with adjacent buildings increases the installed PV capacity in 2035 by 1%, as greater economies of scale and higher self-consumption make PV adoption more economically attractive. A more permissive policy, allowing community solar with buildings within a 100-meter radius, provides more opportunities to communities to grow over time and results in 21% more PV installed capacity in 2035 than without community solar. These findings demonstrate the potential of community solar to accelerate PV adoption in cities and underscore the significant role of policy design in achieving this goal.
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| 20 |
ID:
191268
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| Summary/Abstract |
Social media is used by many for information gathering and sharing nowadays. Public opinion and risk perception are increasingly being shaped online. These online discourses provide valuable insight into the concerns and expectations of its users. This study analyzed more than 50,000 tweets to identify the attitude, locality, and concerns about large-scale solar photovoltaic, so-called mega solar, projects in Japan. The results show that the Twitter discourse is dominated by mega solar opponents who are especially concerned about the negative environmental impact of the projects, as well as the trustworthiness of politicians, developers, and experts. The concerns are not limited to specific local projects but mega solar is often generally dismissed as a suitable energy source in Japan. Twitter allows opinion leaders to reach a large audience with unvetted and biased negative information about mega solar. The lack of opinions that challenge these pre-existing group beliefs indicates the existence of an echo chamber. The currently silent supporters are advised to embrace social media to balance the one-sided discourse and build trust through transparency and engagement with concerned stakeholders.
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